The FastMoto Playbook: Ironman Fantasy Picks, Differentials and FMR Calls

The final round of the 2026 Pro Motocross Championship heads to Ironman Raceway with both titles still to be decided—and one final opportunity for FastMoto players to improve their championship position.

Hunter Lawrence leads Jett Lawrence by just one point in the 450 championship, while Cole Davies holds a 14-point advantage over Levi Kitchen in the 250 class.

While the championship contenders will dominate the headlines, winning the final FastMoto round could depend on finding value deeper in the rider pool.

Here is the first edition of The FastMoto Playbook, featuring our Rider to Watch, two differentials, a closer look at how handicaps create value and the leading FastMoto Rider options for Ironman.

Handicaps, selection percentages and rider statistics were current on August 28. Selection percentages will continue to change before lockout.

Rider to Watch: Mikkel Haarup

450 Class | +12 HCP | 8.3% selected

Mikkel Haarup enters Ironman as one of the strongest combinations of form, handicap value and relatively low ownership in the 450 class.

Haarup has averaged 61.7 points across the past three rounds, scored 57 at Budds Creek and carries a positive +2.2 hard-charger average.

His handicap has been reduced from +14 to +12 following his recent performances, but it still provides significant scoring potential. If Haarup again finishes around the edge of the top five, his handicap could move him to the front of the adjusted results before any hard-charger points are added.

At only 8.3% selected, he also provides useful separation from popular riders such as Jett Lawrence, Haiden Deegan, Jorge Prado and Hunter Lawrence.

Why we like him: Strong recent average, valuable handicap and consistent top-10 speed.

The risk: His reduced handicap leaves slightly less margin for error. He will need another strong real-world performance or positive hard-charger result to produce an elite fantasy score.

Playbook verdict: Still one of the best balanced 450 selections for Ironman.

The Differential

A differential is a relatively low-owned rider capable of producing a score that significantly exceeds their selection percentage.

These are not necessarily the safest riders in the pool—but choosing the right one can separate your team from the majority of FastMoto players.

250 Differential: Leum Oehlhof

+20 HCP | 8.3% selected | 56.0 three-round average

Leum Oehlhof replaces Hunter Yoder as our leading 250 differential following the release of the final Ironman handicaps.

Oehlhof scored 70 points at Budds Creek, the fourth-highest total in the 250 class. He carries a positive +6.0 hard-charger average and has averaged 56 points across his past three appearances.

The key number is his +20 handicap. A finish around 20th could move Oehlhof to the top of the adjusted results, while any forward movement from his opening-lap position would add further scoring upside.

By comparison, Yoder’s handicap has been reduced from +17 to +11 after his 79-point Budds Creek performance. That does not make Yoder a poor selection, but it substantially reduces the value that made him our original differential.

Oehlhof is currently selected by 8.3% of teams, keeping him low-owned enough to provide leaderboard separation without relying entirely on a one-round breakout.

Playbook verdict: The strongest combination of handicap, recent scoring and positive hard-charger form among the lower-owned 250 riders.

450 Differential: Christian Craig

+18 HCP | 0% selected | 52.5 three-round average

Christian Craig remains one of the most interesting differentials in the 450 pool.

Craig scored 69 points at Budds Creek, gaining eight positions in Moto 1 and 11 in Moto 2. His handicap helped him collect maximum adjusted-position points in both motos, while the forward movement added another 19 points.

His Ironman handicap has been reduced from +20 to +18, but it still creates considerable scoring potential. A finish around the top 18 could place him at or near the front of the adjusted results.

Craig’s 34.1 season average is less impressive than his current form, but his 52.5 three-round average shows how much his fantasy production has improved recently. He also carries a positive +4.9 hard-charger average.

Despite scoring 69 last round, Craig was still sitting at 0% ownership when these statistics were captured.

Playbook verdict: A genuine low-owned option for players trying to make a late championship move.

Handicap Explained: Why Austin Schafer Scored 75

250 Class | +26 Ironman HCP | 0% selected

Austin Schafer’s Budds Creek performance is a perfect example of why real finishing position does not tell the full FastMoto story.

At Budds Creek, Schafer carried a +35 handicap. He finished 25th in Moto 1 and 26th in Moto 2, but the handicap moved him to first in the adjusted results in both motos.

That gave him the maximum 25 base points each time.

He then added:

• 14 hard-charger points in Moto 1
• 11 hard-charger points in Moto 2

The calculation was:

• Moto 1: 25 base points + 14 hard-charger points = 39
• Moto 2: 25 base points + 11 hard-charger points = 36 Round total: 75 points

That made Schafer the third-highest-scoring 250 rider at Budds Creek despite finishing outside the real-world top 20 in both motos.

His Ironman handicap has now been reduced by nine positions, from +35 to +26. This is an important reminder that handicaps respond to rider performance. Last round’s breakout score does not automatically mean the same rider will offer identical value at the next event.

With a +26 handicap, Schafer would need to finish 26th or better to reach first in the adjusted results. That is still achievable, but the qualifying and consistency risks remain.

Playbook lesson: Look beyond last round’s score. A rider’s updated handicap determines whether that same scoring opportunity still exists.

The FastMoto Rider Call

Your FastMoto Rider scores double points, making it one of the most important decisions in your team.

There are two main approaches at Ironman:

• Select a proven front-runner with a reliable scoring floor.
• Chase a handicap rider capable of producing one of the highest totals in the class.

250 Safe FMR: Chance Hymas

0 HCP | 41.7% selected | 55.7 three-round average

Hymas arrives at Ironman after winning Budds Creek with a 2–1 result.

He scored 62 FastMoto points, including the Moto 2 holeshot bonus, and carries an excellent +11.2 hard-charger average.

Hymas no longer receives any handicap assistance, meaning he must earn his finishing points directly on the track. However, his current race-winning form and consistent forward movement give him one of the strongest scoring floors in the 250 class.

Doubling his current three-round average would return approximately 111 points.

Why he is the safe call: Current race-winning form, strong hard-charger numbers and two opportunities to score near the front.

250 Aggressive FMR: Henry Miller

+15 HCP | 0% selected | 59.0 three-round average

Henry Miller scored a class-leading 80 points at Budds Creek, producing identical 40-point scores in both motos.

His handicap has now been reduced from +20 to +15, so repeating that exact scoring performance will be more difficult. Miller will need to finish further forward in the real results or produce another strong hard-charger performance to offset the five-position reduction.

However, his 59-point three-round average remains one of the strongest in the 250 pool. He also remains virtually unselected compared with the major factory riders.

A repeat of his current three-round average would return approximately 118 points as the FastMoto Rider.

Why he is the aggressive call: Strong recent production, useful remaining handicap value and almost no ownership.

450 Safe FMR: Jett Lawrence

0 HCP | 50% selected | 55.3 three-round average

With no handicap, Jett must earn his points through finishing position, hard-charger movement and any available bonus points.

He remains one of the most reliable podium riders in the field.

Jett scored 61 points at Budds Creek after going 5–2. He added 22 hard-charger points across the two motos, demonstrating that even without a handicap he can build a strong fantasy total when recovering from imperfect starts.

He also enters Ironman only one point behind Hunter Lawrence in the championship, leaving no room for a conservative performance.

At 50% ownership, Jett will not provide much leaderboard separation—but avoiding him as the FastMoto Rider could be costly if he delivers a title-winning performance.

Why he is the safe call: Elite finishing potential, positive hard-charger form and a championship that requires him to attack.

450 Aggressive FMR: Benny Bloss

+11 HCP | 16.7% selected | 71.7 three-round average

Benny Bloss still has the strongest recent fantasy numbers in the 450 field.

Bloss scored a class-leading 71 points at Budds Creek and holds a 71.7 three-round average. His handicap has been reduced from +12 to +11, but the one-position change does little to diminish his overall appeal.

His +11.0 hard-charger average shows that his recent production has not come from handicap value alone. Bloss has consistently gained positions during the motos, giving him multiple paths to a strong score.

His Budds Creek total would have returned 142 points if doubled as the FastMoto Rider.

Ownership has climbed to 16.7%, meaning he is no longer a hidden selection, but he still provides considerably more separation than Jett Lawrence, Haiden Deegan, Jorge Prado or Hunter Lawrence.

Why he is the aggressive call: The highest three-round average in the class, a positive hard-charger profile and an effective +11 handicap.

Final Playbook

If you are protecting a strong championship position, prioritise riders with reliable pace and recent scoring. Jett Lawrence, Chance Hymas and Mikkel Haarup fit that approach.

If you need to make up ground in the final round, Benny Bloss, Leum Oehlhof, Henry Miller and Christian Craig provide greater separation from the field.

Our updated Ironman calls are:

• Rider to Watch: Mikkel Haarup — +12 HCP
• 250 Differential: Leum Oehlhof — +20 HCP
• 450 Differential: Christian Craig — +18 HCP
• 250 Safe FMR: Chance Hymas — 0 HCP
• 250 Aggressive FMR: Henry Miller — +15 HCP
• 450 Safe FMR: Jett Lawrence — 0 HCP
• 450 Aggressive FMR: Benny Bloss — +11 HCP

Ironman takes place on Saturday, August 29. Check qualifying, final rider availability and late injury or withdrawal news before your team locks.