Round 1 Preview: Fox Raceway — Rip It Ron's Picks
Outdoor season is here, Fox Raceway is primed, and Ron’s got your high-ceiling Round 1 squad dialed in before the first gate even drops.
TroyDesigns · 28 May 2026
🏍️ Intro
Hey legends, it’s your boy Ron here and the gates are finally dropping on 2026 Pro Motocross! Fox Raceway is back to open the season, the spreadsheets are warmed up, and Ron is ready to absolutely cook your FastMoto squad for Round 1.
Look, Ron’s been wrong before (we don’t talk about that mud round), but Pala is one of the best truth-teller tracks we’ve got. This is THE round to snag value before the market catches up.
📍 Round Overview — Fox Raceway Form Check
Fox Raceway at Pala is your classic SoCal outdoor test: ripped and watered early, deep ruts, baked hardpack underneath once the sun bakes it, and long, gnarly motos that punish anyone who didn’t grind their base laps in the offseason.
Key features to keep in mind for fantasy:
- Two long motos per class — fitness and late-moto pace > SX-style sprint speed.
- Flowy layout with big uphills, long downhills and fast rollers where race craft and line choice can make or break a charge.
- Starts matter, but not everything — you can hard-charge from mid-pack here if your fitness is legit.
- Qualifying is huge — riders who are near the top of the board at Pala tend to be the same riders at the front when it counts.
Historically, Fox Raceway is where the true outdoor guys surface. Jett’s been perfect here in the premier class, Deegan and Shimoda have been weapons in the 250s, and it’s consistently a strong Hard Charger round with deep fields and big gaps in late-moto pace.
For Round 1 fantasy, don’t just chase SX hype — lean into outdoor pedigree, team strength, and +HCP value.
💥 450 Class Breakdown
With no Jett in the data but a stack of proven big-bike talent, this 450 pool is all about blending rock-solid factory guys with juicy +HCP plays who can live around the top 10–15.
Eli Tomac (#3, +1 HCP)
Eli at Fox Raceway is straight-up history:
- 3 all-time wins here in the 450s and one of the kings of this venue historically.
- One win shy of Rick Johnson for 3rd all-time in 450MX wins — motivation meter: pinned.
- Even with the long gap since his last MX win (Fox Raceway 2022), his outdoor base and race IQ are still elite.
At +1 HCP, you’re essentially betting on Eli living on the podium or just outside. On a Red Bull KTM with full-factory support, the floor is incredibly high. Not the wildest ceiling in terms of adjusted score, but a perfect FMR anchor when you just want a guy you know will be at the sharp end both motos.
Chase Sexton (#4, +4 HCP)
Sexton and Pala have serious history:
- 2 wins at Fox Raceway all-time in the 450 class.
- One of the few guys whose raw outdoor pace can match the very top when he’s in a groove.
The move to Monster Energy Kawasaki adds some unknowns, but the upside is scary:
- +4 HCP means a 5th on track becomes a 1st in adjusted terms.
- He’s a qualifying weapon outdoors — if he lights up the board in time practice, he’s a top-tier fantasy play.
There’s a bit more volatility than Eli, but the combo of history at the venue and +4 HCP makes him a premium main-team pick.
Hunter Lawrence (#96, +2 HCP)
Hunter’s 450MX stats are ridiculously consistent:
- 22 starts in the 450 class.
- 22 top-five finishes. That’s not a typo — every single start in the top five.
He doesn’t have the same Fox Raceway legacy as Jett, but his outdoor craft is legit and Honda has this place dialed. At +2 HCP, a 5th becomes an adjusted 3rd, and his consistency is gold in a two-moto format.
For fantasy, Hunter is the definition of a safe top-5 adjusted scorer with mild bonus from the +2 HCP. Perfect for your main trio or insurance slot.
Aaron Plessinger (#7, +5 HCP)
AP’s Pro Motocross notes are wild:
- 28 moto podiums.
- 15 overall podiums.
- Still zero 450MX moto wins.
That means he consistently lives in the 3–5 range when things click. On a Red Bull KTM, his starts and fitness make him a sneaky weapon at a long, rough track like Fox Raceway.
With +5 HCP, even a 7th-place ride on track converts to an adjusted podium. He’s got big upside if he finally nails two clean motos.
Christian Craig (#28, +14 HCP)
Craig hasn’t always translated his SX finesse to outright outdoor domination, but:
- He’s a veteran with strong SoCal track familiarity.
- On a solid Quadlock Honda setup, he should be in that 8th–15th outdoor pack if he’s healthy.
At +14 HCP, a 15th on track becomes an adjusted top-10. If he starts well and hangs in, you’re suddenly looking at top-5 fantasy potential without needing Craig to be an actual podium guy.
He’s exactly the type of Round 1 value play that can separate your team from the pack.
🔥 250 Class Breakdown
The 250 field is headlined by a small but potent group of title-caliber guys mixed with some high-HCP swing picks. With recent history showing the Round 1 winner often ends up champion, you want at least one of the legit frontrunners.
Jo Shimoda (#30, +1 HCP)
Shimoda is practically Mr. Fox Raceway in the 250s:
- One of his best venues with 8 starts.
- Average finish 4.9 here with 6 moto podiums.
- Finished 2nd overall in the 2025 championship.
- In 2025, he finished 1st or 2nd in 15 of 22 motos. That’s insane consistency.
Add in that he’s a past Fastest Qualifier outdoors, and you get a rider who has both elite pace and a super stable floor. Even at just +1 HCP, a 3rd on track becomes an adjusted 2nd — and he’s absolutely capable of winning motos.
Shimoda is a premium FMR candidate and a near lock for your 250 core.
Seth Hammaker (#10, +2 HCP)
Hammaker brings a ton of upside:
- 3-time Fastest Qualifier in MX — the raw speed is not in question.
- On a Monster Energy Pro Circuit Kawasaki, the equipment and support are top tier.
The question mark with Seth is always consistency and staying off the ground. But in fantasy, that +2 HCP gives a little padding: a 6th on track becomes an adjusted 4th. If he’s anywhere near front-pack starts, he can absolutely hang with the podium boys.
He’s a classic high-ceiling main-team pick you want exposure to early before the value balances out.
Max Vohland (#19, +5 HCP)
Vohland quietly put together a strong 2025 season:
- 8th overall in the 250 championship.
- A good blend of starts, speed, and solid two-moto consistency.
On ClubMX Yamaha he might not have the big factory spotlight, but that can be fantasy gold. At +5 HCP, Vohland is the type of rider who can finish 8th–10th on track and still land as a top-5 adjusted scorer if he keeps it upright.
He’s a perfect Round 1 value pick if you’re loading stars elsewhere.
Nate Thrasher (#25, +3 HCP)
Thrasher is streaky, but when he finds his flow he’s absolutely top-5 material outdoors:
- Backed by the powerhouse Monster Energy Star Racing Yamaha program.
- Strong starts and intensity fit well with the opening-round energy.
At +3 HCP, a 7th becomes an adjusted 4th. If he gets decent starts and holds it together for two motos, he can easily outscore his “name value” in fantasy.
Michael Mosiman (#23, +8 HCP)
Mosiman is your pure upside swing:
- Proven race winner speed in the smaller class historically.
- Now with Star Racing Yamaha, giving him elite equipment and a great program.
The volatility is real, but at +8 HCP, even a 12th-place ride can become an adjusted 4th. If he stays off the deck, he’s absolutely capable of running in the top 8–10 and smashing his HCP.
💡 Sleeper Picks of the Week
Freddie Noren (#63, +29 HCP)
Freddie sits one 450MX start behind Kyle Lewis for 3rd most all-time — that’s a lot of gate drops and a lot of motos finished. His superpower is showing up, making the motos, and grinding to the end.
At +29 HCP, you don’t need anything crazy from him. If he finishes, say, 18th–20th on track, you’re looking at an adjusted top-10 profile. For a Round 1 where chaos is common, that kind of veteran reliability is huge.
Valentin Guillod (#39, +20 HCP)
Guillod is an interesting overseas-style outdoor guy on a Gizmo Racing Yamaha. These Euro-based riders often thrive when the track gets rough and gnarly.
At +20 HCP, a mid-teens finish suddenly looks like a borderline podium in adjusted scoring. If he adapts quickly and brings that GP-style stamina, he’s got legit sleeper potential.
🤙 Signing Off
Round 1 at Fox Raceway is where the pretenders get roosted and the real outdoor grinders step up. Lock in your core on proven outdoor assassins, sprinkle in those juicy +HCP values, and don’t be afraid to send it on one or two sleepers.
Hammer down in qualifying, watch those lap charts, and let’s start 2026 with a holeshot on the fantasy leaderboard.
Stay pinned, — Ron 🤙