Round 9 Preview: Unadilla — Rip It Ron's Picks
Unadilla rewards fitness, flow and Hard Charger heroes — Ron’s loading up on late-moto assassins and high-HCP value plays for a massive fantasy payout.
FastMoto_Rider · 13 August 2026
🏍️ Intro
Hey legends, it’s your boy Ron here, rolling into the valley at Unadilla and ready to absolutely cook this round. Gravity Cavity, Skyshot, off-cambers for days — and a fantasy slate loaded with Hard Charger weapons. This is a big ceiling week if you lean into the right +HCP hammers and the dudes who come alive late in the motos.
📍 Round Overview — ‘Dilla Deep Dive
Unadilla is pure old-school moto: fast, flowing, and brutally rough by the end of Moto 2.
What matters for fantasy here:
- Natural elevation & Euro style: Long ruts, off-cambers, and big downhill braking bumps reward riders with good bike setup and throttle control. The smoother the style, the better they hold pace deep into the moto.
- Big features: Gravity Cavity and Skyshot can break your spirit or make your day. Confident jumpers and rhythm riders tend to move forward mid-moto when others back it down.
- Choppy late-moto conditions:
- Fitness is huge. Guys who typically bank strong Avg HC/Rnd scores are in play because they keep picking dudes off when the track is at its gnarliest.
- Starts vs Hard Charger: Starts are still valuable, but at Unadilla there’s room to pass. A bad start isn’t death if your pick has legit outdoor speed and fitness. That’s why Avg HC/Rnd is gold here.
Winner history reminder:
- 450: Jett Lawrence and Chase Sexton have owned this joint recently, but Jett is the modern Unadilla king with wins in 2023, 2025.
- 250: Jo Shimoda went 1-1 in 2025 and absolutely smoked them (won M1 by nearly 40 seconds), Levi Kitchen and Hunter Lawrence also have dubs.
We’re hunting riders who:
- Have proven outdoor pace
- Show strong Avg HC/Rnd (consistent movers forward)
- Carry juicy +HCP for adjusted position value
- Stay off the deck in deep ruts and sketchy off-cambers
💥 450 Class Breakdown — ‘Dilla Big Dogs & Value Steals
Jett Lawrence (#1) — The ‘Dilla Benchmark
Look, Ron’s been wrong before, but betting against Jett at Unadilla is how you end up rage-selling your whole team Sunday morning.
Why he’s still the anchor even at +0 HCP:
- Track record at ‘Dilla: 3-for-3 in the 450 class historically, plus dominant outdoor form everywhere. This is his style of track.
- Stats for 2026:
- Avg: 26.3pts/main → ~52.6pts/round on expectation
- Avg HC/Rnd: 3.3pts — he doesn’t need to hard-charge; he just starts front and stays there.
- Fantasy angle: With +0 HCP, you’re paying full freight, but his floor is ridiculously high. Even a 2–3 overall day keeps him firmly in premium territory.
Best use: Core 450 main pick — rock-solid anchor with minimal downside.
Haiden Deegan (#38) — The Rookie Hammer at +1 HCP
Back on the big bike and already riding like he wants to tear down the Skyshot banners.
Why I love him here:
- Unadilla-style tracks reward his aggression and confidence. He’s not scared to send it down Gravity Cavity or scrub the life out of Skyshot.
- Numbers:
- Avg: 29.4pts/main — best raw average in the 450 field → ~58.8pts/round
- Avg HC/Rnd: 12.9pts — that is insane. He’s consistently moving forward big from his gate pick.
- Trend: same, but his recent: 24, 42.5, 23.5 shows a massive ceiling when it all clicks.
- +1 HCP just adds a little extra sugar to already elite race results.
Fantasy angle: Between the raw average and HC upside, Deegan has the highest ceiling in the class this week. He’s firmly in FastMoto Rider (2x) conversation.
R.J. Hampshire (#24) — Quietly Crushing Hard Charger
R.J. on a rough, technical track where you’ve gotta dig deep and grind? Yes, please.
Stats that pop:
- Avg: 25.7pts/main → ~51.4pts/round
- Avg HC/Rnd: 8.1pts — elite for a guy already running near the front.
- Recent rounds: 27, 27, 29.5 — insanely consistent, trend = same.
- +4 HCP means his typical 5–7 raw finishes get boosted nicely on adjusted scoring.
Fantasy angle:
- He starts okay, then just keeps picking guys off late-moto. At Unadilla, that’s money.
- Great blend of ceiling and stability, and his Avg HC/Rnd screams reliable bonus points.
Dylan Ferrandis (#14) — Euro-Style Specialist
Unadilla is about flow and standing up through rough chop — Ferrandis was built in a lab for this.
Why he’s in play:
- Former MX champ, historically strong on Euro-style tracks (see: High Point, Hangtown moments, general outdoor craft).
- 2026 stats:
- Avg: 24pts/main → ~48pts/round
- Avg HC/Rnd: 4pts — modest but positive, he tends to claw forward.
- Trend: up with recent: 34.5, 26.5, 26.5 — very healthy.
- +5 HCP gives him extra adjusted juice for typical 6–10 finishes.
Fantasy angle: Not the flashiest, but Unadilla is exactly where his style can overperform that 24pt average. High trust, medium risk, sneaky upside.
Deep Value / HC Monsters
These are the guys who can win you the week if you’re brave enough to send it:
Lorenzo Locurcio (#50) — +14 HCP, HC Magnet
- Avg: 28.7pts/main → ~57.4pts/round — absolutely massive for a +14 play.
- Avg HC/Rnd: 10.4pts — he’s consistently moving up from outside-gate purgatory.
- Recent: 36.5, 24, 28 — strong scoring with no obvious collapse.
At Unadilla, with room to pass and a long lap, this profile is exactly what you want: starts outside the top 15, claws into the top 10, then gets a huge adjusted boost from +14.
Benny Bloss (#54) — Big Dude, Big Value
- HCP: +17 HCP
- Avg: 23.4pts/main → ~46.8pts/round
- Avg HC/Rnd: 7.3pts — one of the better movers in the class.
- Recent: 36, 31, 16 — ceiling is very legit.
Long, open Unadilla straightaways and flowing sections suit him. If he stays off the ground, +17 can turn a 14–16 raw finish into a spicy adjusted result.
Garrett Marchbanks (#36) — Risk/Reward Charger
- HCP: +11 HCP
- Avg: 22.6pts/main
- Avg HC/Rnd: 5.3pts — positive mover.
- Recent: 0, 21, 27.5 — bit of volatility, but the upside is clearly there.
More of a tournament-style play, but Unadilla gives him plenty of space to use that big-bike speed.
🔥 250 Class Breakdown — Hard Charger Heaven
The 250s at Unadilla are usually chaos: late-moto fades, big charges, and wild swings. That’s perfect for Hard Charger scoring.
Levi Kitchen (#47) — Unadilla Proven, HC Monster
Kitchen and Unadilla already have history: he won here in 2024, then came back to win again in 2025. This place just fits him.
2026 profile:
- Avg: 28.3pts/main → ~56.6pts/round
- Avg HC/Rnd: 17pts — read that again. Seventeen. He is the Hard Charger god right now.
- Recent: 26, 39, 26 — that 39 is the kind of round that can solo-carry your team.
- HCP: +0 HCP — you’re paying full raw price, but his HC points are so huge it barely matters.
Fantasy angle: Given his Unadilla win history and his absurd Avg HC/Rnd, he’s my 250 pick with the highest true ceiling. Perfect FMR candidate.
Chance Hymas (#29) — Smooth Operator With Big HC
Chance’s style is tailor-made for a choppy, rutted layout like ‘Dilla.
Why he’s almost a must-play:
- Avg: 26.9pts/main → ~53.8pts/round
- Avg HC/Rnd: 12.4pts — legit Hard Charger upside.
- Recent: 29, 29, 25.5 — super consistent.
- HCP: +2 HCP — small but meaningful buffer.
He rarely blows the start completely, but he’s almost always moving forward a few spots. Add in his HC profile and this is a high-floor, high-bonus pick.
Kayden Minear (#99) — Trending Up, HC-Friendly
Minear’s quietly figuring outdoors out, and his stats say we should be paying attention.
- Avg: 27.1pts/main → ~54.2pts/round
- Avg HC/Rnd: 9.6pts — strong mover.
- Recent: 19.5, 24, 39 — that 39-point heater shows his ceiling is real.
- HCP: +5 HCP gives nice adjusted juice to already-strong raw results.
At Unadilla, where late-moto fitness is exposed, his HC profile is exactly what we want. He’s a fantastic main-squad option with breakout potential.
Carson Mumford (#71) — Mr. Consistent With Bonus Upside
Mumford’s 2026 outdoor run has been sneaky good.
- Avg: 26.5pts/main → ~53pts/round
- Avg HC/Rnd: 8.9pts — steady gainer.
- Trend: up with recent: 33, 33.5, 29.5 — that is elite stability.
- HCP: +4 HCP keeps him fantasy-friendly even if he starts around P10–P12.
He’s not the flashiest, but on a tough, technical track he’s exactly the sort of guy who just keeps it on two wheels and moves forward while others toss it away.
High-HCP Gold: Buccheri, Long & Co.
Russell Buccheri (#140) — Deep-Field Weapon
- HCP: +35 HCP — enormous.
- Avg: 26.3pts/main → ~52.6pts/round
- Avg HC/Rnd: 6.4pts — he’s not just living off HCP; he’s actually moving forward.
- Trend: up with recent: 24, 30.5, 36 — that’s legit improvement.
If he keeps qualifying mid-pack and racing into the teens, +35 HCP can turn already-good motos into monstrous adjusted scores.
Avery Long (#57) — Sneaky Sleeper With +20 HCP
- Avg: 23.3pts/main → ~46.6pts/round
- Avg HC/Rnd: 5.1pts — nice upward mobility.
- Trend: up with recent: 23.5, 37.5, 23.
- HCP: +20 HCP is serious value if he qualifies mid-to-back and races his way near the top 15.
Unadilla gives him passing opportunities to fully leverage that +20 and decent HC history.
💡 Sleeper Picks of the Week
450 Sleeper — Lorenzo Locurcio (#50)
Locurcio is the perfect Hard Charger + high-HCP special:
- Avg: 28.7pts/main is second only to Deegan’s raw number in this class.
- Avg HC/Rnd: 10.4pts — he charges every single round.
- +14 HCP turns those charges into disgusting adjusted scores.
If he qualifies deep (which he often does) and rides into the low teens/top 10 at a track as pass-happy as Unadilla, he can outscore bigger names straight up.
250 Sleeper — Russell Buccheri (#140)
Buccheri is the kind of name casual players skip over — that’s your edge.
- Avg: 26.3pts/main with an upward trend.
- Avg HC/Rnd: 6.4pts — consistent forward progress.
- +35 HCP is absolutely wild; even a P18–P20 raw finish can become fantasy gold if he moves forward from a poor gate pick.
In Hard Charger scoring, this is exactly the profile that breaks leagues late in the season.
🤙 Signing Off
This is THE round, legends — a classic Unadilla grinder where Hard Chargers and high-HCP grinders can outscore the big names if you pick smart. Load up on late-moto fitness, proven HC profiles, and let everyone else chase only brand names and raw speed.
Stay pinned,
— Ron 🤙