Round 2 Preview: LA SMX Playoff — Rip It Ron's Picks

🏍️ Intro

Hey legends, it’s your boy Ron here back for SMX Playoff 2 in LA and I am READY to cook. Two mains per class, Hard Charger scoring cranked up, and a stadium track that’s gonna punish bad gate picks and reward the grinders. We’re talking big upside, big swings, and some sneaky value if you pick the right chargers.

This week I’m leaning hard into Avg points per main + Avg HC/Rnd to find the guys who not only finish well, but pass a ton of dudes on the way. Let’s rip it.

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📍 Round Overview — SMX Under the LA Lights

Venue: Dignity Health Sports Park, Los Angeles, CA
Format: SuperMotocross hybrid — two mains each for 450 and 250.

What to expect:

• Hybrid layout: Think stadium-style SX rhythms blended with outdoor-style speed — more room to breathe than tight Supercross but still technical enough to punish mistakes.
• Starts & first lap: With Hard Charger scoring, a bad qualifying gate isn’t a death sentence — but a bad start still hurts. The sweet spot is those riders who regularly qualify mid-pack, then charge forward.
• Hard Charger math: We’ve got Avg HC/Rnd in the data. Over just two mains, a guy who averages +10 HC points per round can literally swing your fantasy matchup.
• Conditions: Unlike the rainy mudder in Columbus, LA should be way closer to normal SMX conditions. Treat Round 1 as form, but don’t over-index on a one-off mud vibe.

This is a classic “don’t just pick the biggest name” round. You want the ones who can start okay, survive, and then grind through the pack.

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💥 450 Class Breakdown — Hard Charger Heaven

We’ve got a killer mix here: elite guys with low HCP, plus a stack of mid-pack chargers with big bonuses. Remember: all averages below are per main, and we’ve got 2 mains.

Haiden Deegan (#38) — The New Boss

• Data check: 30.5pts/main, +0 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +1
• Projection: ~61pts per round (but all raw speed, not HC-heavy)

Deegan swept both motos at SMX Playoff 1 and leads all 450s on per-main scoring. With +0 HCP and only +1 Avg HC/Rnd, you’re basically betting on him to just be up front all night.

For fantasy:

• Massive floor: if he’s top 3 both mains, you’re golden.
• Limited Hard Charger upside: there’s no “start 12th, finish 4th” tax bonus baked in historically.

He’s absolutely in the main mix for me, but not the guy I want as my 2x FastMoto Rider — I want Hard Charger juice there.

Dylan Ferrandis (#14) — The HC Monster

• Data check: 29pts/main, +5 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +13 (elite!)
• Projection: ~58pts raw, plus those sweet HC trends

Ferrandis is exactly what you dream of for this format:

• Speed: Just 1.5pts/main off Deegan.
• +5 HCP: Gives you position-adjusted cushion if he lives around 4th–7th.
• Avg HC/Rnd: +13: That’s huge — he consistently qualifies worse than he finishes and claws through the pack.

Two mains means two chances for Dylan to blow past people and farm bonus points. Ceiling is insane if he starts mid-pack and goes beast mode.

Strong candidate for FMR450 — arguably the best overall ceiling in the class.

Shane McElrath (#12) — Value & Volume

• Data check: 28.5pts/main, +8 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +10
• Projection: ~57pts, with big adjustment and HC upside

McElrath is quietly one of the best value plays on the slate:

• +8 HCP: That’s a ton of buffer if he finishes just inside the top 10.
• Avg HC/Rnd: +10: He’s making passes regularly; even mediocre starts turn into positive HC days.
• Nearly Ferrandis-level per main scoring but with more HCP.

Look, Ron’s been wrong before, but on paper this is about as safe-yet-upside as it gets. I want Shane in my main three.

Garrett Marchbanks (#36) — Sneaky FMR-Level Ceiling

• Data check: 25.5pts/main, +12 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +14 (class-best)
• Projection: ~51pts baseline, but the game-changer is the combo of +12 HCP and +14 HC

Marchbanks is the purest “Hard Charger build” in the 450s:

• +12 HCP means even if he finishes 12–14th on track, he scores like a top-8.
• Avg HC/Rnd: +14 — that’s absurd. He regularly slices forward from bad qualifying spots.

If the starts go sideways for some big dogs, Garrett can nuke the field in fantasy terms. He’s volatile, but the ceiling is legit FMR territory. I seriously considered the 2x tag here.

Ken Roczen (#94) — The Class & Consistency

• Data check: 27pts/main, +0 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +10
• Projection: ~54pts with strong HC upside

Roczen is Ken Roczen — you know the deal:

• Up-front speed with fewer sketchy moments than most.
• +10 Avg HC/Rnd is sneaky: even with decent qualifying, he still tends to move forward.
• No HCP cushion, so you’re betting on pure finishes and passes.

In a normal round, he’s a no-brainer. In this format, I like him slightly less than Ferrandis/McElrath for FMR duty because they get bonus baked in through HCP as well.

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🔥 250 Class Breakdown — Young Guns & Hard Chargers

The 250s are where the Hard Charger game really gets wild. Multiple guys are averaging +10 or more HC points per round, which is insane over just two mains.

Ryder DiFrancesco (#34) — SMX Playoff 1 King

• Data check: 33pts/main, +3 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +16 (best in class)
• Projection: ~66pts baseline — the top score on the entire slate

Ryder D is built for this scoring system:

• Highest per-main average in either class.
• +3 HCP gives a bit of position-adjusted padding.
• +16 Avg HC/Rnd is outrageous — he’s basically guaranteeing bonus points every round.

He qualifies okay, then charges like a madman. With two mains, his upside as your FMR250 is enormous. This is the clearest 2x pick of the weekend.

Caden Dudney (#82) — Star Bike, Star Value

• Data check: 30pts/main, +5 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +13
• Projection: ~60pts, right behind Ryder on pace with better HCP

Dudney is that perfect mix of:

• High-end per-main scoring
• +5 HCP to convert top-10 rides into top-5 fantasy
• +13 Avg HC/Rnd showing legit passing power

He doesn’t need chaos to pay off — just do what he’s been doing and he’s a lock top-tier fantasy scorer. You want him on the gate.

Henry Miller (#53) — Privateer Gold

• Data check: 30pts/main, +15 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +10
• Projection: ~60pts with a monstrous +15 HCP

Henry Miller is exactly the kind of rider this scoring system turns into a weapon:

• +15 HCP: enormous buffer. P13 on track? That can score like a top-5 adjusted.
• Avg HC/Rnd: +10: he’s not just hanging on, he’s marching forward.
• Per-main average equal to Dudney but with way more HCP.

If you’re a “value over hype” player, Miller should be one of the first names you click. Massive ceiling with a surprisingly solid floor.

Lux Turner (#43) — True Hard Charger Build

• Data check: 28.5pts/main, +10 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +10
• Projection: ~57pts, with legit value across the board

Turner’s profile screams safe upside:

• Good, consistent per-main scoring.
• +10 HCP: plenty of help if he’s around 8th–12th on track.
• +10 Avg HC/Rnd: those Hard Charger bonuses add up fast in a two-main night.

He doesn’t even have to light the world on fire to be a great play — just keep doing Lux Turner things and you’re raking in adjusted points.

Levi Kitchen (#47) — Proven SMX Guy, Lower HC Edge

• Data check: 23pts/main, +0 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +2
• Projection: ~46pts, mostly pure finishing

Kitchen is a proven SMX and MX weapon, but fantasy-wise this slate is stacked with better Hard Charger profiles:

• No HCP cushion
• Only +2 Avg HC/Rnd — he tends to qualify and finish near the same spot

Still a safe name, but you’re passing on a lot of HCP/HC value if you go here over the mid-pack chargers.

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💡 Sleeper Picks of the Week

These are your lower-hype plays that could absolutely blow up in this scoring system.

Justin Hill (#46, 450) — Quiet Hard Charger

• 20pts/main, +13 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +9

Hill’s raw average doesn’t pop off the page, but:

• +13 HCP is huge; adjusted positions will be kind.
• +9 Avg HC/Rnd means he’s consistently moving forward from mediocre qualifying.

If the big names grenade or get bad starts, Hill can sneak into a top-5 fantasy score without ever touching the real-life podium.

Drew Adams (#35, 250) — Rookie Upside

• 21.5pts/main, +7 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: +12

Drew’s average is middle of the pack, but the Hard Charger signal is strong:

• +12 Avg HC/Rnd shows he’s making passes every time out.
• +7 HCP adds even more adjustment juice.

If he cleans up the first laps and keeps it on two wheels, he’s one good start away from being a slate-breaker.

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🧢 Ron’s FastMoto Fantasy Team — SMX Playoff 2 (LA)

Remember: two mains per class, Hard Charger scoring heavily weighted, no duplicate riders across roles.

450 Squad

• Dylan Ferrandis (#14)
  Elite mix of speed, +5 HCP, and a monster +13 Avg HC/Rnd. Hard Charger king with top-tier pace.

• Shane McElrath (#12)
  28.5pts/main with +8 HCP and +10 Avg HC/Rnd — insane value if he just keeps doing what he’s been doing.

• Haiden Deegan (#38)
  Highest per-main average in the class; low HC but massive raw speed and win equity.

• fmr450 (2× points): Garrett Marchbanks (#36)
  +12 HCP and class-best +14 Avg HC/Rnd give him a sky-high ceiling if (when) he charges from bad starts.

• Ken Roczen (#94)
  Rock-solid vet with 27pts/main and +10 Avg HC/Rnd — safe backup if chaos hits your mains.

250 Squad

• Caden Dudney (#82)
  30pts/main with +5 HCP and +13 Avg HC/Rnd — perfect blend of speed and passing bonus.

• Henry Miller (#53)
  30pts/main, +15 HCP, +10 Avg HC/Rnd — privateer cheat code in this format.

• Lux Turner (#43)
  28.5pts/main, +10 HCP, +10 Avg HC/Rnd — super balanced, high-value grinder.

• fmr250 (2× points): Ryder DiFrancesco (#34)
  Slate-high 33pts/main and a ridiculous +16 Avg HC/Rnd — the standout 2x pick of the entire round.

• Drew Adams (#35)
  21.5pts/main with +7 HCP and +12 Avg HC/Rnd — upside rookie who can Hard Charge his way into relevance if things get wild.

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🤙 Signing Off

SMX Playoff 2 in LA is tailor-made for the grinders and late-race chargers, and this squad is loaded with guys who start mid-pack and claw forward all night. Don’t just chase the biggest names — chase the Hard Charger points and that juicy HCP value.

Hammer down, trust the data, and let your team rip.

Stay pinned, — Ron 🤙