Round 3 Preview: AUSX Open Geelong — Rip It Ron's Picks
Triple-mains under the lights in Geelong, handicaps cranked, and some juicy new 450 storylines — Ron’s locking in the studs, fades and sneaky sleepers you need for AUSX Round 3.
TroyDesigns · 6 November 2026
🏍️ Intro
Hey legends, it’s your boy Ron here and the AUSX Open is about to go full send in Geelong!
Triple mains for both classes, new heavy hitters rolling into SX1, and handicaps that can make or break your weekend — this is one of those rounds. Let’s break down who you can trust when the gate drops three times and who’s primed to blow up the leaderboard.
📍 Round Overview — Geelong Triple-Main Chaos
Geelong typically serves up a tighter indoor-style layout: technical rhythms, short start straight into a 180, and whoops that get cupped out fast once the mains stack up. That matters in fantasy this week because we’ve got 3 mains for 450 and 3 for 250 — more starts, more chaos, more chances for your team to either rail the berm or tip over in the sand.
Key factors for this round:
- Triple mains = consistency is king: One crash doesn’t end your night, but three average starts absolutely can. Riders with solid pts/round and low DNS/DNF vibes are gold.
- Handicap juice: The track layout rewards good starters and clean technicians. Combine that with +8 to +11 HCP guys who can ride inside the top 10 and you’ve got serious upside.
- New SX1 storylines: Jo Shimoda steps up to the 450s, Ken Roczen returns after a zero last round, and a stack of Aussie privateers have already shown they can cash in on big HCPs.
Lock in riders who can manage intensity across all three mains, not just one hero ride.
💥 450 Class Breakdown — Big Dogs & Big HCPs
Ken Roczen (#94)
Roczen’s pts/round sits at a massive 85pts/round, highest in the SX1 field. He dropped 85 at Round 1 then a goose egg at Round 2, so the Trend: down tag is more about one bad night than any loss of speed.
With 0 HCP, you’re taking him straight up — but his ceiling is obvious from that Round 1 clinic. If you think the Geelong dirt and tighter layout play into his technical precision and starts, he’s a premium anchor pick. I’m leaning toward locking him in a main slot, but I’m slightly wary of making him my FMR with that recent zero.
Luke Clout (#4)
Clout is just relentlessly solid right now. He’s sitting on 61.5pts/round, with 76pts at Round 1 and 47pts at Round 2 and a +1 HCP.
He doesn’t need chaos to pay off — his baseline speed is already there, and the +1 HCP just smooths out any mid-pack main. In triple mains, that kind of floor is gold. Clout is high on my list for both main and FMR consideration because he blends top-end potential with reliable scoring.
Vince Friese (#719)
Yeah, I know — picking Friese always feels a bit like lining up next to him in a heat. But the fantasy numbers are hard to ignore.
He’s sitting on 58pts/round, with a monster 75pts at Round 1 and 41pts at Round 2. The kicker is the +6 HCP. On a tighter Geelong-style track, his starts and racecraft can turn that +6 into serious adjusted-position value.
If he keeps it on two wheels and inside the top 8–10 all night, that HCP lets him punch above his raw finish spots. He’s a classic high-reward tournament-style play for your 450 trio or even an aggressive FMR if you want to fade the Roczen chalk.
Aaron Tanti (#9)
Tanti has a 75pts/round average from the one scored round we’ve got, with 75pts at Round 1 and 0pts at Round 2 and a +2 HCP.
We know the upside is real — he was top three in fantasy back in Auckland — and +2 HCP keeps him spicy in this field. The risk is obvious with the zero at Round 2, but in a triple-main format, if his starts are on, that +2 can turn podium-speed motos into huge adjusted scores. For me he’s a ceiling play, better suited to an FMR dart if you want to chase big.
Chandler Burns (#24)
Burns is one of the sneakiest value plays on the board. He’s sitting on 75pts/round, all from 75pts at Round 1 with a big +11 HCP.
We don’t yet know if that average is a long-term trend, but an +11 HCP in a triple-main format is wild if he’s consistently main-event speed. This is the kind of profile that can absolutely torch the field if he’s racing all three mains clean.
I like him as a main or FMR candidate if practice and qualifying show he’s still around that upper-mid-pack pace.
Other 450 Names to Watch
- Christian Craig — 58pts/round, 66 then 50, 0 HCP. Pure raw speed, but no HCP safety net. Great anchor, slightly lower fantasy ceiling than guys with big plus numbers.
- Reid Lehrer — 55pts/round with 60 then 50 and +10 HCP. That’s real form plus real HCP. He’s exactly the kind of guy who can quietly outscore bigger names.
- Ryan Alexanderson — 50.5pts/round, 51 and 50, with +6 HCP. Mr. Consistent. In triple mains, that’s very attractive as a stability pick or reserve.
- Jo Shimoda — 0pts/round in AUSX so far but joins SX1 with a +1 HCP and strong historical 250 results including wins and podiums. The unanswered question: how quickly he adapts to the 450 in this field. For this round, I like him more as a watch-and-see qualifier-dependent flyer than a lock FMR.
🔥 250 Class Breakdown — Young Guns & Value Monsters
Cole Davies (#37)
Davies has the highest average in the class at 85pts/round, thanks to that 85pts blowout at Round 1. Round 2 was a zero, so Trend: down, but the upside is undeniable.
With 0 HCP, you’re paying full freight on raw pace. On a Geelong-style layout, his aggression through rhythms and whoops fits perfectly — he just needs to stay upright and out of trouble. For me he’s a top-tier FMR candidate if you believe Round 2 was an outlier, not the new normal.
Cameron Mcadoo (#63)
Mcadoo has a 57.5pts/round average, with 85pts at Round 1 and 30pts at Round 2, on 0 HCP.
He’s aggressive, he charges late, and in a triple-main format that opens the door to multiple Hard Charger-style rides if his starts are off. The downside is obvious: no HCP means crashes hurt more. Still, his pts/round profile and Round 1 ceiling keep him squarely in main/FMR conversations.
Brodie Connolly (#88)
Connolly is the smooth operator of this SX2 class. He’s posted 55.5pts/round, going 51pts then 60pts, with a helpful +3 HCP.
That mix of strong per-round scoring and a little HCP padding is exactly what you want when you’re trying to dodge the volatility of triple mains. He doesn’t need a miracle start to pay off — he just has to ride to his current level. I like him a lot as a stable main pick and even a safer FMR than the zero-HCP hammer picks if you want a balanced approach.
Cambell Williams (#8)
Williams quietly looks like one of the best value plays on the SX2 board.
He’s averaging 50pts/round, with 53pts and 47pts in the first two rounds, backed by a big +10 HCP. That’s legit scoring already, and the +10 means even a mid-pack finish can turn into an excellent adjusted result.
In a triple-main layout that rewards consistency more than one hero ride, he’s firmly in my core build conversation and absolutely on the FMR watchlist for those fading the bigger names.
Supporting 250 Weapons
- Reid Taylor — 45pts/round, with 65pts then 25pts, on +7 HCP. We’ve seen the ceiling; if he can avoid drama across three mains, that +7 is tasty.
- Thomas Wood — 45.5pts/round, 59pts then 32pts, with +10 HCP. Similar value story to Williams, just a little more up-and-down.
- Max Anstie — 43pts/round, 51pts and 35pts, with +4 HCP. Veteran savvy in SX, especially on tricky tracks. His floor is solid and he’s a strong reserve candidate.
- Ryder Kingsford — 37.5pts/round with a big 75pts then 0pts, +1 HCP. Huge upside when things go right, but triple mains plus that recent zero keep him in the boom-or-bust bucket.
💡 Sleeper Picks of the Week
450 Sleeper — Reid Lehrer (#225)
Lehrer is the fantasy nerd’s special this week. He’s averaging 55pts/round with 60pts at Round 1 and 50pts at Round 2, and he comes with a fat +10 HCP.
That’s not a one-off — those are back-to-back solid rounds, and the HCP hasn’t been fully punished by the scoring yet. If he simply maintains his current pace and keeps slotting into the mains around the 8–12 range, his adjusted results can rival some of the big-name stars for far less risk.
250 Sleeper — Cambell Williams (#8)
I’m doubling down on Williams as the SX2 sleeper. 50pts/round, with 53pts and 47pts, plus a huge +10 HCP is exactly what we chase in fantasy.
He’s already showing he belongs in the front half of the field, and that HCP magnifies every clean ride. If the popular picks like Davies and Mcadoo have one bad main, Williams can absolutely roost his way past them on total adjusted score.
🤙 Signing Off
This AUSX Open is the real deal — triple mains, stacked 450 debuts, and handicaps that can launch you up the FastMoto leaderboard if you nail the mix of stars and value.
Dial in your gate picks around consistency, sprinkle in one or two big-send ceiling plays, and let the triple mains do the rest. Stay pinned,
— Ron 🤙