Round 6 Preview: Southwick — Rip It Ron's Picks

🏍️ Intro

Hey legends, it’s your boy Ron here, and we’re rolling into Southwick — the sandbox where titles get made and fantasy teams get buried. Hard Charger scoring plus bottomless sand ruts is exactly the kind of chaos Ron loves to cook with. Strap in, we’re building a squad that can dig deep for 35 minutes and still be charging past lappers.

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📍 Round Overview — Welcome to the Sandbox

Southwick (The Wick 338) is the gnarliest sand track on the Pro Motocross calendar. Deep, square-edged, endlessly rough and always getting chewed up by locals who know every grain of sand.

Key Southwick traits for fantasy:

• Brutal sand & bumps: Late-moto fitness and bike setup matter more than raw sprint speed.
• Lines everywhere: Riders who can improvise and rail outside berms when the inside is smoked are gold.
• Locals & underdogs: This is the track where lesser-known sand guys jump into the deep top 15 on raw comfort.
• Hard Charger heaven: Long motos and heavy roost mean lots of riders fading backwards — our job is to find the ones still charging in the last 10 minutes.

With Hard Charger scoring in play (bonus for positions gained from gate pick), Southwick becomes all about:

• Riders who qualify conservatively but move forward all moto.
• Avoiding the guys who nuke one fast lap in Q then bleed HC points by going backwards.

This is THE round to lean into grit, fitness, and proven Hard Charger averages.

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💥 450 Class Breakdown — Sand Specialists & HC Weapons

Southwick’s premier-class history is stacked with legends like Carmichael, Dowd, and Jett Lawrence, but fantasy this weekend is about value + Hard Charger upside.

#38 Haiden Deegan — +1 HCP

Look, Ron knows the talking point: “Deegan hasn’t led a 450 moto lap yet.” But fantasy-wise, he’s still a hammer.

• Avg: 29 pts/main with massive 13 Avg HC/Rnd — one of the best HC profiles in the class.
• That means even when the raw finish isn’t perfect, he’s clawing forward from his gate pick and stacking bonus.
• Recent scores have cooled a bit (34 → 26.5 → 19.5), but Southwick suits his aggressive, stand-up style and fitness.

At +1 HCP, you’re not getting much adjusted-position juice, but the Hard Charger profile is elite. Deegan is a perfect high-ceiling core pick; just know you’re paying close to full freight.

#41 Mitchell Harrison — +13 HCP

If you want a Southwick-style grinder with Hard Charger upside, Harrison is your guy.

• Avg: 29.5 pts/main — actually better than Deegan on raw fantasy output so far.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 11.4 pts — that’s elite; he’s consistently moving forward from his gate pick.
• Recent: 32, 25.5, 28.5 — rock solid, no disaster rounds.
• +13 HCP means if he sits around 12–15th on track, he scores like a borderline top-10.

This is exactly the profile we want in Southwick sand: good but not flashy qualy, then steady forward progress as others fade. One of Ron’s favourite 450 value plays this week.

#50 Lorenzo Locurcio — +18 HCP

This is where we really lean into HC scoring and HCP value.

• Avg: 28.2 pts/main — right there with the top guys, but with way more HCP.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 10.6 pts — he’s regularly a double-digit Hard Charger.
• Recent: 30.5, 20.5, 32.5 — one soft round but otherwise proper ceiling.
• +18 HCP is massive. A 16th on track adjusts like a 10th. A 13th on track? You’re laughing.

Outdoor vet, good sand technique, and a proven forward mover — Locurcio is tailor‑made for a Southwick Hard Charger game.

#1 Jett Lawrence — +0 HCP

No HCP, modest HC, so why even talk Jett? Because floor and win equity still matter.

• Avg: 27.2 pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: 5.6 — he does move forward, just not as dramatically as the mid-pack guys.
• Recent trend: 20 → 26.5 → 30 — clearly building form after some early-season turbulence.
• Southwick history is ridiculous: 3-in-a-row at The Wick, 5 of the last 6 motos.

With no HCP, Jett has to beat your value picks on raw finish. But this is one of the tracks where he’s most likely to just pin it and check out. He’s not the best points-per-dollar—but he’s still the guy most likely to go 1–1.

#36 Garrett Marchbanks — +4 HCP

Marchbanks is sneaky-strong in the sand and his fantasy profile quietly screams “safe ceiling”.

• Avg: 26.5 pts/main, which is proper top‑tier.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 8.2 pts — that’s strong HC production, regular forward movement.
• Recent: 30.5, 33, 30.5 — absolutely on a heater; Trend: up.
• +4 HCP isn’t crazy, but it helps turn 7–10th-on-track days into fantasy sweet spots.

He’s not as flashy as Deegan or Jett, but his recent consistency plus good HC average makes him an ideal fantasy anchor.

Other 450 Notes

• Hunter Lawrence (+0 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: 1) — champion-caliber speed, but with no HCP and low HC, he has to absolutely nail results to beat similar-priced stars. Fine in real life, only “OK” for this particular scoring.
• Jorge Prado (+0 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: -2.8) — trend is up on finishes, but losing HC points on average is dangerous in this format. Great rider, sketchy fantasy profile here.
• Cornelius Tøndel (+23 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: -6.6) — monster HCP, but consistently losing HC and a down trend. That screams risky boom/bust rather than reliable.

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🔥 250 Class Breakdown — Red Plate Dogs in the Deep Sand

The 250 class this year is wild: 4 different winners in 4 rounds, and only Levi Kitchen has been top‑5 every round. Southwick plus Hard Charger scoring is where the mentally tough 250 guys separate themselves.

#30 Jo Shimoda — +0 HCP

Shimoda waltzes into Southwick with the red plate and momentum.

• Avg: 29.2 pts/main — best in class.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 15.6 pts — read that again. He’s averaging fifteen and a half Hard Charger points per round. That’s insane.
• Recent: 31.5, 23.5, 32.5 — one slightly softer day, otherwise elite.
• History: two‑time RedBud winner, and holding the red plate in the sand at Southwick this year is a big confidence marker.

Even with +0 HCP, Shimoda’s HC output alone justifies him. When your presumed title guy is also best Hard Charger in the field, you lock him in and move on.

#47 Levi Kitchen — +2 HCP

Kitchen has been the definition of consistency this season.

• Only 250 rider top‑5 overall at all 4 rounds so far.
• Avg: 27 pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: 15 pts — almost Shimoda‑level HC production.
• Recent: 24, 17.5, 37.5 — High Point was a mega score, and he already has strong Fox Raceway and Hangtown histories, showing he’s an all‑conditions guy.
• +2 HCP gives just enough adjusted finish help to keep him efficient.

Kitchen might not always look as explosive as some of the kids, but his HC numbers scream late‑moto passes. In the roughest sand race of the year, that’s exactly how you want to score.

#29 Chance Hymas — +6 HCP

Hymas has been a bit under the radar, but his fantasy and HC profiles are top tier.

• Avg: 26.4 pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: 15 pts — matching Kitchen on HC.
• Recent: 22.5, 28, 23 — always in the mix, rarely a stinker.
• Remember: he’s been blazing fast outdoors before (like RedBud 2024 where he went 4–1 for his first overall).
• +6 HCP is an awesome sweet spot: not so high that it means chaos, but enough to turn 7–9th rides into top‑5 fantasy outcomes.

For Southwick specifically — where brains and throttle control matter as much as raw speed — Hymas looks like a perfect value/cap play.

#99 Kayden Minear — +6 HCP

Minear’s stats say “solid,” but his upside is quietly spicy.

• Avg: 26.8 pts/main, which is just behind Shimoda.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 9.6 pts — consistently scoring bonus as a forward mover.
• Recent: 24.5, 21.5, 26 — solid, consistent, and trending like a long-moto specialist.

Combine that with +6 HCP and you’ve got a guy who doesn’t need a perfect start — he just needs to keep moving forward every lap and let the sand carnage come to him.

#43 Lux Turner — +16 HCP

If you want a true Hard Charger weapon with momentum, Lux is your guy.

• Avg: 20.8 pts/main, which understates his current form.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 7.8 pts — solid HC production.
• Recent: 8, 29.5, 44 — that 44 is a nuclear score; High Point showed real, repeatable upside.
• Last round 7th overall was a career best and his first top‑10.

At +16 HCP, he can start just outside the top 20 and still smash adjusted results if he charges. Exactly the kind of profile that can blow up a Southwick slate if you’re on him early.

Other 250 Notes

• Marshal Weltin (+16 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: 7.4) — local‑friendly profile: solid HC, good HCP, steady 20+ point averages. Safe play with sneaky upside if the sand game is strong.
• Dilan Schwartz (+14 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: 7.2, Trend: up) — big recent scores at R1 and R2; High Point was softer but still fine. Very much in the conversation.
• Carson Mumford (+12 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: 5.8, Trend: down) — huge R1, then faded. HC is okay, but recent form scares Ron a bit in these conditions.

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💡 Sleeper Picks of the Week

450 Sleeper — #50 Lorenzo Locurcio (+18 HCP)

Locurcio is my value bomb in the 450s.

• 28.2 pts/main with 10.6 Avg HC/Rnd is absolutely premium for a +18 HCP rider.
• The sandbox rewards calm, experienced sand racers who don’t panic when the track goes to the moon.
• With that HCP, a 14–16th on-track is still a great fantasy score, and if he sneaks into that 10–12 range? You’re looking at league‑winning upside.

250 Sleeper — #43 Lux Turner (+16 HCP)

Turner is the perfect Hard Charger flier for Southwick.

• Coming off 44 pts at the last round and a career‑best overall.
• 7.8 Avg HC/Rnd shows he already has the right HC profile — he moves forward.
• +16 HCP gives him a ton of room to start mid‑pack and still post top‑10 adjusted results.

Look, Ron’s been wrong before, but Lux feels like one of those picks we look back on and say, “Yeah, that was the week he arrived.”

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🧩 Ron’s FastMoto Fantasy Team — Southwick Sand Squad

Remember: 2 mains per class, Hard Charger baked into the averages, and no duplicate riders across any slot.

🔧 450 Class Squad

Haiden Deegan (#38, +1 HCP)
Elite average and 13 Avg HC/Rnd make him the perfect high-ceiling anchor — even when he doesn’t nail the start, he charges into bonus.

Mitchell Harrison (#41, +13 HCP)
29.5 pts/main plus 11.4 Avg HC/Rnd and big HCP — pure value in long, rough sand motos.

Garrett Marchbanks (#36, +4 HCP)
On a heater (30+ every recent round) with 8.2 Avg HC/Rnd; steady forward mover with legit top‑5 raw speed.

fmr450 (2x): Lorenzo Locurcio (#50, +18 HCP)
Ron’s ceiling play: 28.2 pts/main, 10.6 Avg HC/Rnd, and huge +18 HCP. If he keeps slicing through the pack like he has been, the 2x multiplier could be race‑winning.

Jett Lawrence (#1, +0 HCP)
No HCP discount but maximum win and podium equity at a track he’s owned. Rock‑solid insurance if anything weird happens to your value guys.

🔧 250 Class Squad

Jo Shimoda (#30, +0 HCP)
Class‑leading 29.2 pts/main and absurd 15.6 Avg HC/Rnd — the rare red‑plate guy who also crushes Hard Charger.

Levi Kitchen (#47, +2 HCP)
Only rider top‑5 at all rounds; 15 Avg HC/Rnd plus steady form makes him a must‑have core piece.

Chance Hymas (#29, +6 HCP)
26.4 pts/main and 15 Avg HC/Rnd with bonus +6 HCP — a perfect blend of speed, consistency, and HC upside.

fmr250 (2x): Kayden Minear (#99, +6 HCP)
Second‑tier price tag with near‑top averages (26.8 pts/main, 9.6 Avg HC/Rnd). With 2x on, a good Southwick day puts him right with Shimoda/Kitchen on total output.

Lux Turner (#43, +16 HCP)
Coming off a 44‑point explosion, 7.8 Avg HC/Rnd, and a juicy +16 HCP. Perfect insurance play with genuine breakout potential if he keeps the momentum rolling.

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🤙 Signing Off

This is the round where fitness, flow, and Hard Charger grit separate the legends from the lappers in your league. Build around guys who get stronger when the track gets nastier, and let everyone else sink in the sand.

Hammer down, surf the ruts, and let those HC bonuses stack up like roost on a fresh set of goggles.

Stay pinned, — Ron 🤙