Round 13 Preview: Nashville — Rip It Ron's Picks

🏍️ Intro

Hey legends, it’s your boy Ron here and we are ROLLING into Music City for Round 13! Nashville hasn’t been on the map every year, but when it shows up, it delivers absolute carnage and championship-defining rides. Let’s rip through this field, find the sneaky +HCP gold, and build a squad that’ll have your league mates wondering what just roosted them.

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📍 Round Overview — Moto in the Music City

Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee — outdoor, open-air, and usually just humid enough to make fitness a real factor. The place has already given us some massive storylines:

• 2019: Eli Tomac started lap 1 in 11th, went full beast mode, and had the lead in 7 minutes. Classic late-race hammer-down Tomac.
• 2023: Hunter Lawrence clinched his first U.S. title here in the 250s. Emotional, clutch, and mistake-free when it mattered.

Track-wise, expect a big stadium floor with room for:

• Long rhythm lanes into big triples
• At least one gnarly set of whoops that separates the men from the lappers
• Bowl turns perfect for rail-the-berm passes and aggressive blocks

Open air plus Tennessee spring means the dirt can go from tacky to slick as moisture changes. Late in the main, ruts form in the rhythms, and that’s where the smooth technicians and fitness freaks shine — exactly the kind of stuff we can exploit for fantasy.

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💥 450 Class Breakdown — Big Dogs & Value Hounds

Ken Roczen (#94, +0 HCP)

Roczen is cooking right now. Back-to-back wins this season, trend line up, and an average of 27.6pts — comfortably the best in the class. Recent scores: 27, 26, 39. That 39 is title-contender stuff.

At +0 HCP, he’s pure raw performance: you’re paying full price, but you’re getting full factory results. On a slightly gnarly, rutty stadium track like Nashville, his technique and throttle control are elite. The only downside is price-versus-upside — no HCP boost means his ceiling is more about finishing 1–2 than gaming the scoring system.

Fantasy read: Elite anchor, but not the best FastMoto Rider slot — use him as a rock-solid main if you want a safe, high floor.

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Eli Tomac (#3, +1 HCP)

We’ve got history here, and it matters. Tomac’s 2019 Nashville charge from 11th to the lead in 7 minutes is one of the all-time Music City flexes. Different team now, different bike, but same cardio monster.

Stats this year:

• Avg: 24.5pts
• Season: 179pts (just behind Roczen)
• Recent: 19, 24, 22 (trend: same)

The form isn’t peak Tomac, but the +1 HCP gives a small but meaningful bump. If he’s in the 3–5 range on track, adjusted results nudge him closer to that podium scoring tier.

Fantasy read: Narrative + Nashville history + decent form = strong main pick with sneaky ceiling if he finally nails a start.

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Malcolm Stewart (#27, +2 HCP)

Mookie’s quietly putting together a very usable fantasy stretch:

• Avg: 22.6pts
• Recent: 16, 27, 26 (solid rebound after that 16)
• Trend: same, but the direction feels encouraging

The key is the +2 HCP. He’s often in that 6–9 range on track. A +2 bump can swing him into significantly better adjusted positions when the field compresses.

On a track with big rhythms and long lanes, Malcolm’s style works — when he keeps it off the deck. Nashville’s whoops and ruts could punish laziness, but if he stays upright, he’s strong value.

Fantasy read: Premium value main — good blend of HCP help and real-world speed.

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Mitchell Harrison (#41, +11 HCP)

This is where we start to really cook with the scoring system.

• Avg: 23.1pts (that’s fringe-top-tier territory)
• Season: 158pts
• Recent: 22, 25, 25 — insanely stable
• Trend: same (and that’s not a bad thing here)

At +11 HCP, Harrison is straight-up one of the best value profiles in the 450 field. He’s putting up mid-20s without crazy volatility, and that HCP means if he’s around 12–15th on track, his adjusted result catapults into strong points.

Fantasy read: Perfect FastMoto Rider candidate — huge adjusted ceiling with a very respectable floor.

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Garrett Marchbanks (#36, +6 HCP)

Marchbanks is doing exactly what fantasy players want:

• Avg: 22.5pts
• Recent: 24, 27, 25 (arguably the most consistent run in the mid-pack)
• Trend: same

A +6 HCP on a guy with this kind of steadiness is gold. He rarely disappears and seems to avoid full meltdown rides. On a big stadium floor like Nashville, his size and speed through the whoops and rhythms could let him sit right in that 8–12 group all night.

Fantasy read: Main-pick lock in any balanced lineup; you’re getting both value and reliability.

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Deep 450 Notes

• Hunter Lawrence (+1 HCP, avg 21.8pts) — Nashville is emotionally massive for him after clinching his first title here in 2023. But that recent -8pts sticks out like a tip-over special. High ceiling, but with that down trend, he’s more of a GPP-style play in fantasy terms.
• Grant Harlan (+12 HCP, avg 20.5pts) — Scores of 21, 0, 32. The 0 hurts, but the 32 shows what happens when he strings a night together. Classic boom/bust value.
• Cole Thompson (+18 HCP, avg 21.6pts) — Better average than a lot of name-brand guys, massive +18 HCP, and recent 27, 15, 21. He’s the kind of pick that wins weeks if he just stays off the ground.

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🔥 250 Class Breakdown — Young Guns in the Heat

Cole Davies (#37, +0 HCP)

Davies is the alpha of this 250 group right now:

• Avg: 32.1pts — elite
• Season: 219pts — class leader
• Recent: 31, 39, 26
• Trend: same, but same = really good

No HCP help, but he doesn’t really need it. He’s your classic must-consider premium: if you fade him and he holeshots and checks out, you’re playing from behind all week.

Fantasy read: Safe stud — ideal for a main slot, maybe even FastMoto if you want to bet on raw domination over HCP gaming.

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Daxton Bennick (#58, +2 HCP)

Bennick is that quiet weapon:

• Avg: 25.1pts
• Recent: 28, 24, 21 — super stable
• Trend: same

With a +2 HCP, he doesn’t need to win to pay off. Living in the 3–6 on-track zone gives him really nice adjusted finishes, and he’s not throwing in random -10s. On a demanding Nashville layout, his consistency is a big plus.

Fantasy read: High-floor main pick — perfect to pair with a riskier HCP play.

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Seth Hammaker (#10, +0 HCP)

Hammaker’s been solid:

• Avg: 24.3pts
• Recent: 19, 26, 27
• Trend: same

No HCP bump, but you’re basically buying a likely top-5 threat who’s trending in the right direction after that 19. If Davies has an off night, Hammaker is one of the first in line to pounce.

Fantasy read: Strong main option if you want to double up on front-runners and then chase value with your other spots.

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Henry Miller (#53, +11 HCP)

This is where Ron starts rubbing his hands together.

• Avg: 20.2pts
• Recent: 26, 27, 28 — trend: up
• HCP: +11

That’s a dream combination: improving form, strong recent scores, and a fat HCP. If he’s anywhere near the top 12 on track, his adjusted finish is going to be mint. He’s exactly the style of rider who quietly puts your lineup on the box while everyone else stares at the factory dudes.

Fantasy read: Premium value play and top FastMoto Rider candidate in the 250s.

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Devin Simonson (#89, +6 HCP)

Mixed bag alert:

• Avg: 20.2pts
• Recent: 24, -7, 24
• Trend: down (because of that -7)

The +6 HCP is juicy, and two of the last three are solid scores. But that -7 is a reminder that the floor can completely cave in with a crash or mechanical. If you’re chasing league position and need to send it, he’s worth a look; if you’re protecting a lead, there are safer avenues.

Fantasy read: High-risk, medium-high reward — only for managers willing to live dangerously.

💡 Sleeper Picks of the Week

450 Sleeper — Cole Thompson (#66, +18 HCP)

Thompson’s numbers are sneaky good:

• Avg: 21.6pts
• Recent: 27, 15, 21
• HCP: +18

An average north of 21 with a +18 HCP is wild value. If he puts it in the main and rides smart, his adjusted finish can absolutely nuke the mid-pack. The variance is real, but that’s exactly what makes him a week-winning sleeper.

Why Ron likes it: High HCP + proven ability to score in the mid-20s = huge upside for minimal cost.

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250 Sleeper — Luke Clout (#101, +13 HCP)

Clout’s season looks up-and-down, but zoom in:

• Avg: 13.9pts (depressed by zeros)
• Recent: 15, 30, 0
• HCP: +13

We’ve already seen a 30pt type night out of him. At +13 HCP, any top-12-ish ride could push him into a monster adjusted result. Yes, the 0 is scary, but sleepers are supposed to be a little sketchy.

Why Ron likes it: Proven high-end outcome plus a big HCP cushion — exactly what you want if you’re trying to claw back a points gap.

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🤙 Signing Off

This is Nashville, legends — the place where Tomac went beast mode and Hunter locked down a title. The track will rut up, the humidity will bite, and the riders who can dig deep late in the mains will separate. Build smart around consistent HCP monsters, sprinkle in a couple of spicy sleepers, and let your lineup rip.

Stay pinned, — Ron 🤙