Round 3 Preview: Thunder Valley — Rip It Ron's Picks

🏍️ Intro

Hey legends, it’s your boy Ron here, back in the booth and ready to hammer down for Thunder Valley. Round 3 means altitude, sketchy lungs, and fantasy lineups that can either go full send… or full yard sale.

Let’s break down who’s got the engine, cardio, and history to rip it at 6,000 feet and who should be sitting on your fantasy bench.

---

📍 Round Overview — Life at 6,128 Feet

Thunder Valley Motocross Park sits at 6,128 ft elevation just outside Denver, tucked in a natural bowl between the city and the Rockies. That means:

• Less horsepower: bikes are down on power, which rewards riders with buttery throttle control and momentum.
• Deep ruts & square-edge chop: the dirt gets rough and choppy late in the motos — perfect for technical riders and brutal on fitness.
• Starts matter even more: with slower motors, a good jump and drive to the first uphill are everything.

History lesson for the moto nerds:

• Ken Roczen is the all‑time 450 king here with 5 wins in 7 starts.
• Jett Lawrence is undefeated at Thunder Valley in 450MX — 3-for-3.
• In the 250s, it’s been a playground for guys like Justin Cooper, Jeremy Martin, Blake Baggett, Ryan Villopoto, and lately Chance Hymas & Haiden Deegan.

This place rewards riders who can breathe deep, flow the hills, and stay mistake-free for 30+2. That’s exactly the profile I’m targeting in fantasy this week.

---

💥 450 Class Breakdown — Thin Air, Big Scores

Jett Lawrence (#1, +0 HCP)

Jett rolls into a track where he’s never lost in 450MX. The career numbers are still absolutely absurd:

• 25 wins in 29 Pro Motocross overalls (86%).
• 46 moto wins in 58 starts (79%).
• 1-1 scoreline in 19 of those 25 wins.

Even coming off injury this season, he’s gone 4-3 (3rd overall) and 1-1 (1st overall) in recent races, which tells you the ceiling: perfect day at literally any round, including at altitude.

Fantasy-wise, +0 HCP means Jett has to do his damage on raw finishing position, but at Thunder Valley his floor is basically a podium, with massive upside if he goes 1-1 again. You don’t have to galaxy-brain this one — he’s the safest elite pick on the board.

Haiden Deegan (#38, +3 HCP)

Deegs steps into 450 duty with top-tier speed and a sneaky little +3 HCP buffer. His 450 statline so far:

• Avg: 32.5pts
• Season: 130pts
• R1: 29pts, R2: 36pts — trending well and handling the big-bike intensity.

He already owns a 250 win at Thunder Valley and knows how to manage the elevation. That +3 HCP means a raw 6th becomes an adjusted 3rd, and suddenly your fantasy score is cooking.

If Jett controls the front, Deegan is exactly the kind of rider who can latch onto the pace, run near the box, and absolutely smash value.

Dylan Ferrandis (#14, +4 HCP)

Dylan and Thunder Valley have history — remember his 450 ride at Hangtown where he went from dead last to the podium? That same late-moto animal energy plays well at elevation.

This season:

• Avg: 27.8pts
• Season: 111pts
• R1: 27.5pts, R2: 28pts — about as steady as it gets.

With +4 HCP, a raw 8th becomes an adjusted 4th. He’s not lighting the world on fire yet, but this is exactly where fitness and grit start separating guys. Ferrandis usually only gets better as the series wears on — he’s a prime mid-round value.

Freddie Noren (#63, +18 HCP)

Freddie isn’t the Hangtown-only hero — he’s a Motocross lifer with ridiculous moto IQ, and that travels.

So far in 2026:

• Avg: 32.3pts
• Season: 129pts
• R1: 27pts, R2: 37.5pts — that R2 jump is serious.

With +18 HCP, Freddie is a fantasy cheat code if he simply lives around 12th–15th in the raw running order. A raw 15th suddenly looks like an adjusted inside the top 10, and if he sneaks a raw 10th? You’re laughing.

He’s the perfect Thunder Valley grinder: good fitness, low drama, maximizes the track when guys start hanging their tongues.

Christian Craig (#28, +10 HCP)

Craig’s not the most obvious Thunder Valley hammer, but his style is tailor-made for the slick, choppy Colorado hard pack.

• Avg: 23.5pts
• Season: 94pts
• R1: 24pts, R2: 23pts — very stable, no wild swings.

With +10 HCP, he doesn’t need to be heroic. A raw 13th becomes an adjusted 3rd. His combination of good technique, solid starts, and veteran race craft makes him a fantastic safety net in your lineup — especially if the altitude claims some bigger names.

---

🔥 250 Class Breakdown — Who Survives the Hills?

The 250 field is absolutely stacked with talent and value. The key this week is balancing elite pace guys with HCP monsters who can capitalize if the front guys make mistakes in the thin air.

Seth Hammaker (#10, +2 HCP)

Hammaker’s coming off his first-ever overall win this year, joining the books as the 95th rider to win a 125/250 overall and the 75th to do it within 32 starts.

What made that win so legit:

• Holeshot and led the first 8 laps of moto 1.
• Rounded lap 1 in 1st and 2nd in each moto.
• 2nd in qualifying, and 3rd fastest lap in each moto.
• No major mistakes, pure race craft.

2026 form:

• Avg: 32pts
• Season: 128pts
• R1: 33.5pts, R2: 30.5pts — elite consistency.

With +2 HCP and race-winning speed, Seth is the perfect blend of podium ceiling and solid floor. At a gnarly track like Thunder Valley, his starts and technical skill make him one of the safest high-upside plays in the class.

Max Vohland (#19, +5 HCP)

Vohland is quietly stacking fantasy gold while everyone stares at the bigger names.

• Avg: 32.3pts (best in class this round)
• Season: 129pts
• R1: 31.5pts, R2: 33pts — about as premium-consistent as you can get.

With +5 HCP, a raw 7th becomes an adjusted 2nd. He’s not just consistent — he’s consistently good, and Thunder Valley’s flowing layout suits his smooth riding style.

If you want championship-level reliability without paying the +0 HCP tax, Vohland is your guy.

Jo Shimoda (#30, +3 HCP)

Shimoda had a shakier opener this season compared to last year’s Fox Raceway dominance, but don’t sleep on the overall profile:

• In 2025 he finished 1st or 2nd in 15 of 22 motos.
• He’s a proven front-runner with elite late-moto composure.

2026 numbers:

• Avg: 29.3pts
• Season: 117pts
• R1: 34pts, R2: 24.5pts — huge upside, a bit volatile.

At altitude, Shimoda’s smooth, efficient style is exactly what you want. With +3 HCP, even a small bounce-back from R2 gives him top-tier adjusted results. He’s the classic high-upside play that can win you the week if he puts both motos together.

Levi Kitchen (#47, +0 HCP)

Kitchen’s Thunder Valley history is sneaky strong:

• He’s a multi-time overall podium guy here, historically finishing well above his early-season form.

This year:

• Avg: 28pts
• Season: 112pts
• R1: 34pts, R2: 22pts — shows both his ceiling and his risk.

That +0 HCP means he has to do it on raw results, but Thunder Valley is one of those tracks where when Levi’s rhythm is on, he can absolutely rail the hills and scrub the big tables like no one else. In smaller leagues or if you’re chasing, he’s a strong differentiation play.

Kayden Minear (#99, +9 HCP)

Minear is a pure HCP value weapon right now.

• Avg: 31pts
• Season: 124pts
• R1: 28.5pts, R2: 33.5pts — trending up.

With +9 HCP, he doesn’t need to sniff the podium. A raw 12th becomes an adjusted 3rd. His starts have been solid and his fitness is holding up late in motos — exactly what you want at Thunder Valley. He’s the kind of pick that quietly drops a 30+ week while everyone else is stressing over the big names.

---

💡 Sleeper Picks of the Week

450 Sleeper — Ryan Surratt (#502, +35 HCP)

Ron might be getting a little spicy here, but hear me out.

• Avg: 24.5pts
• Season: 98pts
• R1: 24pts, R2: 25pts — no disasters, just steady rides.
• +35 HCP is absolutely massive.

If Surratt just keeps doing what he’s been doing — hanging around the mid-to-late teens — his adjusted result can rocket into the top 5 fantasy zone. At a track that rewards grinders and smart riding, he’s a classic deep-league steal with legit 30+ upside if things get chaotic up front.

250 Sleeper — Brock Bennett (#159, +26 HCP)

Bennett is exactly the kind of rider people overlook while chasing the shiny names.

• Avg: 29.5pts
• Season: 118pts
• R1: 31.5pts, R2: 27.5pts — both rounds comfortably playable.
• +26 HCP is ridiculous value if he just stays upright.

If he lives around a raw 18th–20th again, you’re looking at adjusted results banging on the door of the top 10. In fantasy terms, that’s massive bang for buck and perfect for bigger groups or if you’re trying to make up ground early in the season.

---

🤙 Signing Off

Ron is BACK and Thunder Valley is the perfect place to make a move — high altitude, high drama, and high fantasy ceilings everywhere you look. Lock in the fitness guys, lean into those juicy +HCP values, and don’t be afraid to send it on a sleeper or two.

I’ll be watching those hills like a hawk and yelling at lap charts all day — you just keep it wide open and enjoy the show.

Stay pinned, — Ron 🤙

P.S Go and check out our recent interview with Supercross Fantasy Champion, Tallon711 The FastMoto Supercross Champion Who Beat His Own Family to the Title