Round 5 Preview: RedBud — Rip It Ron's Picks

🏍️ Intro

Hey legends, it’s your boy Ron here, RedBuuuud edition! Round 5, America’s Motocross Track, full-send crowd, and a fantasy slate where Hard Charger points are absolutely everything. Let’s build a squad that doesn’t just start strong — it claws through the pack and farms those HC bonuses all day.

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📍 Round Overview — America’s Motocross Track Is Open For Business

RedBud MX. Rolling Michigan farmland, RedBud trees, LaRocco’s Leap, and the most patriotic roost on the calendar.

A few things to lock into your brain before you hit “Save Team”:

• Layout & style

  • Big, flowing rhythms into massive jumps like LaRocco’s Leap — rewards commitment and comfort at speed.
  • Deep, choppy braking bumps and ruts that get gnarlier as the day goes on.
  • Starts matter, but with this much traction and line choice, real chargers can pass a lot of dudes.

• Recent trends at RedBud (historical notes)

  • In 450MX, the Fastest Qualifier has won the overall five straight years. Raw speed up front usually translates.
  • In 250MX, the Fastest Qualifier has only converted once in the last seven (Shimoda in 2022) — this class gets chaotic.
  • Jo Shimoda is a two-time 250 RedBud winner (2022, 2025), and Chance Hymas scored his first overall here in 2024.

For FastMoto Fantasy with Hard Charger scoring, RedBud is perfect: long laps, lots of lines, and late-moto fitness let the grinders stack HC points. We’re targeting riders who qualify mid-pack and march forward, not just the obvious holeshot heroes.

💥 450 Class Breakdown — Big Bikes, Big Leaps, Big HC

Hard Charger is king here. I’m weighing Avg HC/Rnd just as heavily as raw Avg/main. We want guys who consistently gain positions from gate pick.

#63 Freddie Noren (+13 HCP)

Freddie is basically the 450 Hard Charger poster boy this season.

• Avg: 29.5pts/main — highest in the 450 field.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 9pts — elite; he regularly moves forward from his qualifying spot.
• Season: 236pts with no crazy spikes, just steady scoring (32.5, 21, 27 in the last three rounds).
• Storyline boost: he’s one shy of tying LaRocco for the most premier class starts at RedBud. Dude lives in this kind of rough, patriotic chaos.

With a +13 HCP, even if he qualifies around 15th and finishes 10th on track, that’s an adjusted top-7 style score plus Hard Charger gravy. At RedBud, where lines open up all moto, Freddie is almost a must-start and a prime FMR candidate.

#41 Mitchell Harrison (+14 HCP)

Mitchell is sneaky nuclear for this format.

• Avg: 28.9pts/main — right on Freddie’s heels.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 10.8pts — one of the best HC profiles in the entire game.
• Trending up: 25.5 → 28.5 → 32pts over the first three rounds.

He tends to qualify just okay, then absolutely charge past lappers mid-moto. Add +14 HCP, and an on-track 12th can score like a legit top-5. On a track like RedBud that rewards aggression and late lines, Harrison is exactly the kind of diesel you want.

#437 Vinny Luhovey (+22 HCP)

If you want pure fantasy value, this is your guy.

• Avg: 28pts/main — top-tier.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 8.3pts — consistent gainer.
• Recent: 31.5, 30.5, 29.5 — insanely steady production.
• +22 HCP is bonkers. That’s deep value: an on-track 18th becomes an adjusted 10th, with Hard Charger likely on top.

Vinny’s the definition of a RedBud grinder — not flashy, but he just keeps passing people while the big names make mistakes. In a two-moto format, that stability plus HCP is gold.

#54 Benny Bloss (+17 HCP)

Bloss is high-risk, high-reward, but his profile screams Hard Charger upside.

• Avg: 26.1pts/main isn’t eye-popping, but:
• Avg HC/Rnd: 11.5pts — best in the 450 class from this list.
• Recent form is volatile but telling: 9 → 36 → 24.5. When he gets starts dialed or stays off the ground, he nukes the scoreboard.
• Season-best ride just came at High Point with a 10th in Moto 2, his first top 10 moto since 2022.

At RedBud, long motos and big lines mean a tall, smooth rider like Bloss can float across bumps and pick guys off. With +17 HCP and that monster HC average, he’s got one of the highest ceilings of anyone not named Jett.

#1 Jett Lawrence (+0 HCP)

You can’t talk 450s at RedBud without Jett.

• Jett has won every 450MX moto he’s ever raced at RedBud (2023, 2025). That’s perfection.
• Avg: 29pts/main with Avg HC/Rnd: 7.5pts — even with a +0 HCP, he’s still gaining positions vs. gate pick.
• Recent: 26.5, 30, 30.5 — brutally consistent.

The catch: +0 HCP means he has to win on track to justify the price in fantasy. For FMR, the mid-pack chargers with big HCP are better value. But as a main pick, Jett’s floor is stupidly high, and Hard Charger history says he rarely goes backward.

Other 450 Notes

• Haiden Deegan (+2 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: 9pts) — still hasn’t led a lap in 450MX, but his HC profile is actually strong. Slightly risky ceiling play, more GPP-style if this were DFS.
• Garrett Marchbanks (+4 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: 6.8pts, Trend: up) — very solid all-around, but HCP is modest compared to the heavy hitters above.
• Hunter Lawrence (+0 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: -0.2pts) — results guy, not a Hard Charger hero right now. Fine in real life, less sexy for this specific scoring.

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🔥 250 Class Breakdown — Shimoda’s House, Kitchen’s Consistency, HC Madness

The 250s at RedBud are historically pure chaos. Four different winners in four rounds this year, and in 2021 we saw six winners in six rounds. For fantasy, we’re pairing ceiling guys with elite HC profiles and a couple of stable grinders.

#30 Jo Shimoda (+0 HCP)

This is literally Jo’s playground.

• Two-time RedBud winner (2022, 2025). 2022 was his first career overall.
• Avg: 28.6pts/main — near the top of the class.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 15pts — that is outrageous. He’s gaining a ton of spots vs. qualifying on average.
• Recent: 23.5, 32.5, 34 — trending nicely.

Even with +0 HCP, Jo’s Hard Charger numbers make him almost handicap-proof. He doesn’t need the score bump because he’s already doing the work with passes. Add in his RedBud track record and he’s close to a lock, and a strong FMR candidate.

#47 Levi Kitchen (+1 HCP)

Levi is the metronome of this 250 season.

• Only rider top 5 overall at all four rounds so far.
• Avg: 27.8pts/main, super safe.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 16.3pts — yes, even higher than Shimoda. That tells you how often he qualifies “meh” and then goes on a tear.
• Held the red plate twice this season already.

The Pro Circuit “curse” storyline is fun, but from a fantasy lens, Levi is a Hard Charger cheat code. Even with a tiny +1 HCP, his HC alone usually offsets any lack of handicap help. His stability makes him ideal as a main pick; for FMR we may want just a touch more raw HCP.

#29 Chance Hymas (+10 HCP)

Quietly one of the best fantasy profiles in the class.

• Past RedBud hero: 4-1 for 1st overall in 2024, his first career overall win.
• Avg: 27.4pts/main — elite.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 20pts — read that again. Twenty. That’s insane Hard Charger value.
• Recent: 28, 23, 28 — he just keeps getting it done.
• +10 HCP is the key: unlike Jo and Levi, he actually gets a meaningful adjusted-position bump.

If he qualifies outside the top 10 (very possible) and rides to a top-5 on track, you’re talking a fantasy supernova: huge HC plus +10 HCP. That combo makes Hymas a prime FMR candidate.

#99 Kayden Minear (+6 HCP)

Minear is the stealth weapon.

• Avg: 27.4pts/main — right on Hymas’ level.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 9.8pts — strong forward-mover.
• Recent: 21.5, 26, 28.5 — healthy upward trend.
• He’s already shown podium-caliber speed this season.

With +6 HCP, Kayden doesn’t need chaos to smash value: a couple of 7th–9th place rides on track can turn into top-5 scoring once HCP and HC juice are applied.

#43 Lux Turner (+13 HCP)

Lux is volatile but absolutely built for Hard Charger formats.

• Avg: 24pts/main — respectable.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 9.3pts — he’s typically moving forward a bunch.
• Recent: 29.5, 44, then -5. That 44-point explosion shows the ceiling; the -5 shows the floor.
• +13 HCP gives him major scoring leverage if he keeps it upright.

He’s not safe enough to staple as FMR, but as a main pick he’s exactly the kind of big-swing play that wins weeks when the chaos breaks your way.

Other 250 Notes

• Seth Hammaker (+11 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: 3pts) — huge outright speed (recent 35.5 and 33.5) but lower HC average and some risk. Still a great traditional pick, just slightly less HC-driven than Hymas or Kitchen.
• Marshal Weltin (+19 HCP, Avg HC/Rnd: 9pts) — really nice grinder profile if you want deeper HCP; safe mid-pack charger.
• Julien Beaumer & Cole Davies — legit title contenders and podium threats, but their HC averages are lower than the guys above, and their HCP is modest.

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💡 Sleeper Picks of the Week — HC Gold Mines

450 Sleeper: #50 Lorenzo Locurcio (+24 HCP)

• Avg: 27.6pts/main — that’s borderline elite.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 10.5pts — he regularly carves through the pack.
• Recent: 20.5, 32.5, 26.5 — proven ceiling with that 30+ outing.
• +24 HCP is one of the biggest in the 450 class.

If he qualifies in the 20s (very plausible) and rides into the low teens, the adjusted finish plus HC could make him one of the top scorers on the day for a fraction of the ownership.

250 Sleeper: #65 Marshal Weltin (+19 HCP)

• Avg: 24.8pts/main — steady.
• Avg HC/Rnd: 9pts — he’s consistently gaining spots.
• Recent: 25, 19.5, 24.5 — doesn’t spike huge, but rarely disappears.
• +19 HCP is massive; just staying on two wheels and grinding to 12th–15th can translate to top-10 fantasy scoring.

On a long, rough track like RedBud, guys like Weltin who don’t fade late can bank HC bonus every moto while the hotshots make mistakes.

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📝 Ron’s FastMoto Fantasy Team — RedBud Round 5

Below is the squad Ron’s rolling to the line with — all about Hard Charger upside + smart HCP.

450 Squad

• FMR 450 (2x points): #63 Freddie Noren
  Jett’s the star, but Freddie is the fantasy star. Best Avg/main in 450, 9 HC pts/rnd, and a juicy +13 HCP at a track he knows like the back of his throttle hand. Ceiling + safety = perfect FMR.

• Main 450 #1: #41 Mitchell Harrison
  28.9pts/main, 10.8 HC pts/rnd, and +14 HCP — that’s a flawless Hard Charger profile. He should be charging past guys all moto long.

• Main 450 #2: #437 Vinny Luhovey
  Rock-solid recent scores and 8.3 HC pts/rnd with an absurd +22 HCP. Even average motos turn into big fantasy hauls.

• Main 450 #3: #54 Benny Bloss
  Highest Avg HC/Rnd in the 450s (11.5), plus +17 HCP. Volatile, but if Bloss keeps it on two wheels, he can absolutely nuke this round.

• Reserve 450: #1 Jett Lawrence
  Perfect 450 RedBud record, 29pts/main, and even with +0 he still averages 7.5 HC pts/rnd. If any of the HC flyers have issues, Jett is the ultimate safety net.

250 Squad

• FMR 250 (2x points): #29 Chance Hymas
  Two-time RedBud magic: 2024 overall winner here, 27.4pts/main, a bonkers 20 HC pts/rnd, and +10 HCP. That combo is exactly what you want for a 2x slot.

• Main 250 #1: #30 Jo Shimoda
  Double RedBud winner, 28.6pts/main, and 15 HC pts/rnd with +0 HCP. Even without a number boost, he just passes everyone. Safe and high ceiling.

• Main 250 #2: #47 Levi Kitchen
  Only rider top-5 at every round, 27.8pts/main, and a ridiculous 16.3 HC pts/rnd with +1 HCP. Pure diesel, stacks HC no matter where he qualifies.

• Main 250 #3: #99 Kayden Minear
  27.4pts/main, 9.8 HC pts/rnd, and +6 HCP. Great balance of speed, passing, and bonus position value.

• Reserve 250: #43 Lux Turner
  Boom-or-bust guy with 9.3 HC pts/rnd and +13 HCP. Perfect reserve: if he has a clean day, he’s a league-winner; if not, he stays parked and your mains still print.

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🤙 Signing Off

RedBud on the 4th, LaRocco’s Leap sending it to the moon, and a Hard Charger scoring system built for grinders — this is the round to back the diesel engines who get stronger every lap. Lock the team, trust the chargers, and let the crowd noise carry your fantasy squad to the podium.

Stay pinned,
— Ron 🤙