Round 4 Preview: High Point — Rip It Ron's Picks

🏍️ Intro

Hey legends, it’s your boy Ron here back in the booth! High Point is on deck, Hard Charger scoring is cranked to 11, and this place rewards the grinders who keep passing when everyone else is smoked. This week we’re building squads around the serial movers — dudes who don’t just start okay, they finish like a freight train.

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📍 Round Overview — High Point, Ruts & Off-Cambers For Days

High Point Raceway is a proper old-school motocross amphitheater: big elevation, off‑cambers, ruts that feel like train tracks, and slick hard-pack mixed with loam.

Key fantasy angles for this one:

• Gnarly ruts & off‑camber corners: Track gets technical, rewards precision and flow. Smart riders who can rail long ruts without tipping over shine late in the motos.
• Passing opportunities: Multiple lines up and down the hills mean real room to move forward — perfect for Hard Charger monsters.
• Starts still matter, but… long motos + brutal choppy uphills = tons of late passes. Quali heroes who fade are traps; we want +HC specialists who march forward every round.

History lesson flavor: this place has crowned legends — Ricky, Villopoto, Tomac, Jett. In the 250s, names like Deegan, Hunter Lawrence, Musquin, Villopoto have all ripped here. High Point tends to reward championship‑caliber race craft, not just raw sprint speed.

This is the first real “chess match” Hard Charger round of the summer. Let’s cook.

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💥 450 Class Breakdown — Hunting Value In The Hills

High Point’s 450 field is sneaky deep with value. The big thing: we’ve got several riders averaging double‑digit Hard Charger points per round, and that’s pure gold with this scoring.

Jett Lawrence — #1 Honda HRC Progressive

• +0 HCP, 29.8pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +7
• Rock‑solid: 30, 30.5, 29 pts the first three rounds — that’s literally metronome pace.
• At High Point historically, Jett is a 3-time winner in the 450 class and 2-time winner in the 250s; he knows how to manage this layout.

With no handicap help you’re paying full freight, but:

• His floor is elite (roughly 60 pts/round at 2 mains).
• He still averages +7 Hard Charger points per round, so even a bad start doesn’t fully punish you.

Ron’s view: Not an FMR (ceiling slightly capped without HCP), but almost a lock as a main if you want guaranteed bulk points. He’s your “don’t blow it” anchor.

Haiden Deegan — #38 Monster Energy Star Racing Yamaha

• +4 HCP, 28.2pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +11
• Trending nicely: 19.5 → 29 → 36 pts over the first three rounds.
• Deegan is a High Point 250 winner historically; now in 450 trim, the style fits — aggressive, comfortable hanging it out on deep ruts.

That +11 Avg HC/Rnd is huge. He’s not just scoring from raw results; he’s passing a ton of guys from his gate pick every weekend. With +4 HCP baked in, a 6–7th on track turns into a fantasy weapon.

Ron’s view: This is exactly the profile we want in a Hard Charger meta: aggression, late‑moto fitness, constant forward motion. A legit FMR candidate, but I’ll show you why I lean another way there.

Mitchell Harrison — #41 Partzilla Rokit Racing

• +16 HCP, 30pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +14
• Recent: 28.5, 32, 29.5 — that’s super consistent.
• Per‑main average is better than Jett and Deegan on raw fantasy because of the combo of HCP and Hard Charger.

This is fantasy gold:

• +16 HCP means if he finishes, say, 16th on track, he scores as if he’s 0 — big jump in adjusted position points.
• +14 Avg HC/Rnd tells us he’s regularly gaining a lot of spots from qualifying.

Over 2 mains, his expectation is ~60 points without counting upside. Slap FMR 2x on that, and now you’re cooking.

Ron’s view: This is my 450 FMR. Look, Ron’s been wrong before, but the math here is screaming. Big HCP, big HC gains, steady results — this is your ceiling pick.

Lorenzo Locurcio — #50 Wildcat Race Team

• +24 HCP, 30pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +11.7
• Recent: 32.5, 26.5, 31 — involves a bit of variance but still averaging elite numbers.

+24 HCP is insane value. He doesn’t need top‑10 speed to crush fantasy:

• A 20th on track adjusts to - 4th? Nope — example math: 20th raw with +24 becomes - 4th adjusted, that’s massive position points.
• With nearly +12 Hard Charger points per round, he’s a serial mover from his gate pick.

Ron’s view: High‑risk, high‑reward, but the data says the risk is mostly just small swings, not DNS/DNF chaos. Perfect main pick if you’re okay with a little volatility for big upside.

Freddie Noren — #63 Gizmo Racing Yamaha

• +18 HCP, 28.5pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +7
• Recent: 21 → 27 → 37.5 — arrow pointing up.
• Has 12 450MX starts at Hangtown (most all‑time there); different track, yes, but tells you he’s a lifer who knows how to survive gnarly nationals.

Noren’s profile:

• Big enough +18 HCP to juice middling finishes.
• Positive Hard Charger average (+7) so he’s not getting stuck mid‑pack.
• Trending strongly upward over the last round suggests bike/fitness combo is coming around.

Ron’s view: This is my 450 reserve — high experience, good trend, usually sees both checkers. Exactly what you want sitting in case chaos strikes a main pick.

Other 450 Names To Consider

• R.J. Hampshire (#24, +4 HCP, 27pts/main, +6.5 Avg HC/Rnd, trend down)
  Solid mover, but that zero at R3 scares me a bit for FMR; fine as a contrarian main if you’re chasing upside and trust the health.

• Grant Harlan (#62, +19 HCP, 22pts/main, +4 Avg HC/Rnd)
  Sneaky good with a big HCP; bit more volatile than Noren as a reserve, but a fun GPP‑style play.

• Hunter Lawrence (#96, +0 HCP, 23.2pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd -0.3)
  Speed is there, trend is up, but negative Hard Charger average means he often loses positions vs gate pick. At a track that rewards movers, that’s a red flag for fantasy.

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🔥 250 Class Breakdown — Hard Charger Carnival

The 250 class at High Point is absolutely stacked with Hard Charger assassins. This is where championships — and fantasy leagues — swing.

Seth Hammaker — #10 Monster Energy Pro Circuit Kawasaki

• +4 HCP, 33.2pts/main (best in class), Avg HC/Rnd: +14.7
• Recent: 35.5, 33.5, 30.5 — ultra consistent at the very top end.
• 2026 breakout: finally got that elusive overall, becoming the 95th rider ever to win a 125/250 overall. Did it with great starts, 2nd in qualifying, and no mistakes.

Even when the starts are good, he’s still racking Hard Charger points. That tells you his gate picks haven’t matched his moto finishes — perfect for this scoring.

Ron’s view: Absolute lock as a 250 main. I’ll explain why he’s not my FMR despite the highest average — it’s all about comparative Hard Charger upside.

Levi Kitchen — #47 Monster Energy Pro Circuit Kawasaki

• +0 HCP, 31.2pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +21 (insane)
• Recent: 37.5, 34, 22 — one off-ish round but still big.
• High Point history: while we don’t have a standalone stat here, note that Levi has been a High Point podium guy in previous seasons and he’s historically a late‑moto charger outdoors.

+21 Avg HC/Rnd is bonkers. That means:

• He’s blowing his qualifying positions out of the water almost every weekend.
• With no HCP, you’re buying pure race‑craft and passing — and this track is perfect for it.

Ron’s view: In a Hard Charger‑heavy scoring system at a track with multiple lines, Levi’s ceiling is outrageous. He’s my 250 FMR — best blend of genuine win speed plus monstrous HC upside.

Jo Shimoda — #30 Honda HRC Progressive

• +0 HCP, 30.3pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +17
• Recent: 32.5, 34, 24.5 — reliably at the sharp end.
• 2025 overall: finished 1st or 2nd in 15 of 22 motos; Fox Raceway is one of his best venues, and his MX race‑craft translates brilliantly to High Point’s European‑style elevation and off‑cambers.

Shimoda is that stealth assassin:

• Doesn’t always blast the holeshot, but almost always moves forward.
• +17 Avg HC/Rnd says he’s banking HC bonus nearly every weekend.

Ron’s view: With Levi on FMR, Shimoda is an all‑day main. High floor, legit win upside, serious HC gains.

Chance Hymas — #29 Honda HRC Progressive

• +11 HCP, 27.2pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +23.7 (the wildest HC number in the class)
• Recent: 23, 28, 30.5 — trending the right direction.
• Known as a 3‑time Fastest Qualifier guy in MX, but the story now is that he qualifies well and still finds a way to move up / recover, leading to monster HC numbers.

+11 HCP plus nearly +24 Hard Charger points per round is utterly gnarly:

• If he has an average start or gets shuffled early, he just goes to work and mows through the pack.
• High Point’s lines mean he can actually turn those moves into reality.

Ron’s view: Slightly spicier risk profile than Shimoda/Hammaker, but the HC upside is too good to ignore. He’s a prime main pick for players looking to win the week, not just survive it.

Max Vohland — #19 ClubMX Yamaha

• +10 HCP, 24.7pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +17
• Recent: 9.5, 31.5, 33 — slow opener, then two big rounds.
• Came off Fox Raceway as the HCP overperformer in Round 1 of the series (in that recap set), showing he can absolutely torch his gate pick.

Big picture:

• +10 HCP is very playable.
• Once he settles in, he’s a consistent forward mover (+17 Avg HC/Rnd) and we’ve already seen that form in the last two rounds.

Ron’s view: I love him as a reserve 250 this week — upside is serious, but we’ve seen the low. Perfect insurance piece with legit podium‑adjacent fantasy scoring when he’s on.

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💡 Sleeper Picks of the Week

These are the guys your league mates might gloss over while staring at big names — but the Hard Charger data says they can absolutely blow up the round.

450 Sleeper — Grant Harlan (#62)

• +19 HCP, 22pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +4
• Recent: 29.5, 11.5, 25 — bit up‑and‑down, but the ceiling is there.

Why Ron likes it:

• +19 HCP is huge for someone with legit mid‑pack speed.
• When he keeps it on two wheels, he can move forward and stack both adjusted position and HC bonuses.

Perfect for deeper leagues or if you want to pivot off the more obvious high‑HCP guys like Harrison/Locurcio.

250 Sleeper — Kayden Minear (#99)

• +7 HCP, 29.3pts/main, Avg HC/Rnd: +13.7
• Recent: 26, 28.5, 33.5 — clean, upward trend.

Why he’s sneaky good:

• Scoring almost 30 pts/main with only +7 HCP means he’s earning a ton from Hard Charger moves and legit pace.
• At a track where line choice and bravery on the downhills matter, his style fits.

If you need a contrarian pivot off the big three (Hammaker/Kitchen/Shimoda), Minear is absolutely live for a top‑3 fantasy performance in class.

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🤙 Signing Off

High Point is where the Hard Chargers earn their keep and the safe picks get roosted by the brave. Load up on the movers, trust the data, and don’t be scared to send it with those big‑HCP grinders.

Stay pinned,

— Ron 🤙

See how I went with my Thunder Valley picks - Round 3 Preview: Thunder Valley — Rip It Ron's Picks