Round 16 Preview: Denver — Rip It Ron's Picks
Mile High madness is back — altitude, dry slick ruts and some spicy +HCP values are about to flip your FastMoto leaderboard in Denver.
FastMoto_Rider · 30 April 2026
Hey legends, it’s your boy Ron here, and we are headed Mile High for Round 16 in Denver! Altitude motors, dry slick ruts, and late-season storylines — this is one of those rounds where smart fantasy players can absolutely rail the berm on the competition. Ron’s cooked up a Denver-specific gameplan: altitude-proof vets, juicy +HCP value, and a couple of privateer sends that could straight-up win you the week.
📍 Round Overview — Mile High, Thin Air, Big Points
Empower Field in Denver sits at 5,280 ft above sea level, the highest stop on the SX tour. That changes everything:
- Thinner air = less power – 450s feel like sleepy 350s if the teams miss the setup. Good throttle control and momentum riders shine.
- Endurance tax – riders who fade late elsewhere can really struggle here. Guys with proven fitness and smooth style are gold.
- Dirt profile – typically starts tacky in practice then dries out fast, breaking down into square-edge haters, hard base and tricky ruts. Expect a slick, choppy main with big mistakes.
- Track style – Denver usually brings long rhythms into a big triple, a legit whoop pad, and some 180s that reward inside guards and block passes. Starts are key — power loss at altitude makes holeshots even more valuable.
From a fantasy angle: prioritize racecraft and consistency over raw blitz speed. Riders who can stay upright, manage breathing, and avoid tip-overs when it gets sketchy late in the main are where we print points.
💥 450 Class Breakdown — Mile High Maulers
Ken Roczen (#94) — The Smooth Operator
Stats: +0 HCP | 26.5 avg | 313 season | Recent: 27, 28.3, 19 (trend: same)
Roczen comes into Denver as one of the safest “anchor” picks on the board. No +HCP boost, but his 26.5pt average is elite in this field, and his recent form – hovering high-20s – screams reliable top-5 adjusted scoring.
Why Ron likes him here:
- Smooth, efficient style that saves energy at altitude.
- Historically strong in slick, technical conditions where bike feel matters.
- Suzuki isn’t the revviest at altitude, but Kenny’s timing and throttle control make up for it.
He doesn’t have the same ceiling as the big +HCP lottos, but as a main squad rock he’s exactly the kind of rider you build around and let the risky picks do the swinging.
Justin Hill (#46) — Value King Keeps Cooking
Stats: +4 HCP | 27.3 avg | 307 season | Recent: 36, 28.7, 24 (trend: same)
Justin Hill has been straight-up fantasy money this year. He led the 450 fantasy scoring in Detroit and was P2 in Philly fantasy scoring — this dude just finds a way to overperform his +HCP.
Why he’s a Denver hammer:
- 27.3pt average is actually better than Roczen’s, and he gets a +4 HCP bonus baked in.
- Recent run (36, 28.7, 24) shows both ceiling and consistency.
- Good starter, good whoops when they aren’t full death ruts, and doesn’t fade terribly late.
If Hill slots into that 6–10 range on track, his +4 HCP often drags him into top-5 adjusted territory. That’s premium value — Ron’s absolutely building around him.
Shane McElrath (#12) — Hot Hand Heater
Stats: +6 HCP | 24.7 avg | 280 season | Recent: 41, 26.7, 23 (trend: up)
Shane just lit Philly on fantasy fire with 41pts off a +7 HCP and he’s still sitting on a tasty +6 HCP coming into Denver.
Why he’s a must-consider:
- Trending up with 41, 26.7, 23 in his last three.
- Strong starter and a smart veteran — perfect combo when conditions get choppy and slick.
- With +6 HCP, even a 12–14th on track can land you legit mid-pack adjusted points.
He’s not as safe as the true blue-chips, but his combination of form + HCP screams ceiling pick this round.
Chase Sexton (#4) — Late-Season Sledgehammer
Stats: +3 HCP | 15 avg | 154 season | Recent: 31, 24.3, 38 (trend: up)
Ignore the season average — Sexton’s current form is what matters. He just dropped a 31 and a 38 in the last three, and when Chase is locked in, his speed is simply different.
Why he’s dangerous at Denver:
- Trend arrow is way up — he’s clearly found comfort late in the season.
- +3 HCP is sneaky. If he runs on/near the box, those extra 3 spots on adjusted results are massive.
- Known for a flowing, efficient style that works really well in broken-down tracks.
There is always a small tip-over risk with him when he’s really sending it, but the upside is round-winning. Ron loves him as a high-ceiling main or FMR consideration.
Garrett Marchbanks (#36) — Diesel at Altitude
Stats: +6 HCP | 23.8 avg | 256 season | Recent: 28, 20.3, 29 (trend: same)
Marchbanks is the big dude who just keeps coming late in races. That diesel engine is exactly what you want at 5,280 ft.
Why he fits this round:
- Rock-solid 23.8pt average with a very nice +6 HCP.
- Recent 28 and 29-point scores show he’s living in that sweet high-value range.
- Usually strong through rhythms and decent in whoops when they’re not full chaos.
He’s the kind of pick that won’t get the hype of Sexton/Roczen, but can quietly outscore them on value when he holds it upright.
Other 450 Notes
- Cooper Webb (#1, +2 HCP) – Trend is up, and he’s historically great in conditions where you have to think and manage the track. Strong safe pick, but the +2 doesn’t pop as hard as some others.
- Dylan Ferrandis (#14, +4 HCP) – Trend up (17, 25.3, 26). If you believe in the Ducati program at altitude, he’s a juicy mid-range value.
- Eli Tomac (#3, +1 HCP) – Colorado local vibes, but his form is rough (0, 0, 7; trend down). Pure narrative play, not a stats-backed one right now.
🔥 250 Class Breakdown — Lightweights in Thin Air
Denver’s 250 field is interesting: lots of guys with zero recent rounds logged in this data but big-name potential, plus some massive +HCP privateers who can blow up the scoreboard.
Haiden Deegan (#1) — Raw Speed, Unknown Form
Stats: +0 HCP | 30.5 avg | 61 season | Recent: 0, 0, 0 (trend: down)
The data says zero recent points, but the 30.5pt average is the highest on the board by a mile. When Deegan is racing and healthy, he’s an instant podium/Win threat every time he drops the gate.
Upside case:
- True win-or-bust profile — if he’s on, he can be the highest raw scorer in the class.
- Even with +0 HCP, a top-3 finish still yields huge points.
He’s risky due to the blank recent rounds, but in terms of ceiling, no one in this 250 field touches him. Tournaments? You absolutely consider sending it.
Levi Kitchen (#47) — Mr. Efficiency
Stats: +2 HCP | 22 avg | 44 season | Recent: 0, 0, 0 (trend: down)
Like Deegan, Kitchen shows zeros recently in the data, but we know his real-world profile: smooth, efficient, smart.
Why he makes sense:
- +2 HCP gives a small but meaningful adjusted bump if he’s in the podium mix.
- Style suits slick, technical tracks — he doesn’t override when conditions go sketchy.
- 22pt average is solid considering the minimal sample.
He’s more of a balanced floor/ceiling play than Deegan. If you want good upside without full death-or-glory vibes, Kitchen is your guy.
Jeremy Hand (#87) — High +HCP Grinder
Stats: +23 HCP | 17.6 avg | 189 season | Recent: 19, 24, 12 (trend: same)
This is the kind of +HCP monster that wins weeks when things break right.
Why he’s fantasy gold potential:
- +23 HCP is enormous — you’re basically getting a full lap of free track position in adjusted scoring.
- Recent scores (19, 24, 12) show that when he makes mains and keeps it steady, he’s a legit value play.
- Denver rewards grinders who can keep it on two wheels while the factory guys send it into the tuff blocks.
If Hand sneaks into the low teens on track, that +23 can drag him into top-5 adjusted territory. That’s how you roast your league.
Hunter Yoder (#60) — Mid-Range With Upside
Stats: +9 HCP | 23.5 avg | 47 season | Recent: 0, 0, 0 (trend: down)
Another guy with no logged recent rounds in this data but a healthy 23.5pt average and a very workable +9 HCP.
Why he’s interesting:
- +9 HCP is the sweet spot — not crazy privateer risk, but enough to rocket up adjusted results.
- If he’s around the top 10 on track, he’s lighting up the adjusted scoreboard.
Not as safe as Deegan/Kitchen in pure talent, but the HCP advantage makes him a really nice mid-tier swing.
Lux Turner (#43) & Joshua Varize (#224) — Quiet Value
Lux Turner (#43) – +13 HCP, 18.5 avg. No recent rounds in the data, but that +13 means even a mid-teens finish can be serious points.
Joshua Varize (#224) – +15 HCP, 21.5 avg. That’s a very strong efficiency profile. If you’re looking for a rider who doesn’t need a miraculous ride to hit value, Varize fits nicely.
Both are strong candidates when you want to lean into the HCP game instead of star power.
💡 Sleeper Picks of the Week
Tristan Lane (#711) — Privateer With Punch
Stats: +19 HCP | 13.1 avg | 174 season | Recent: 0, 19, 26 (trend: same)
Lane’s recent finishes (19, 26) with a +19 HCP is just filthy fantasy value.
Why Ron loves the sleeper:
- Massive +19 HCP gives him top-10 adjusted potential even from deep gate picks.
- Recent form shows he’s making mains and improving late in the season.
- Perfect profile for Denver: gritty, fitness-based value play.
He’s exactly the kind of rider people overlook while they chase big names, and that’s where you sneak through.
Brandon Ray (#388) — High-Ceiling Mystery Box
Stats: +18 HCP | 26 avg | 26 season | Recent: 0, 0, 0 (trend: down)
Ray’s sample size is tiny, but a 26pt average and a +18 HCP is a wild combo.
Why he’s a dark horse weapon:
- If he simply makes the main and stays upright, that +18 puts him in range for a big adjusted score.
- Perfect GPP-type punt – not a safe floor, but a huge leverage play if he sneaks inside the top 15.
If you’re chasing in your league and need to send it, this is one way to get gnarly.
🤙 Signing Off
Denver is where the thin air separates the pretenders from the grinders, and the smart fantasy squads from the ones just sending random picks. Build around proven dudes who can breathe at altitude, then sprinkle in those spicy +HCP sends to blow the doors off your league.
Hammer down this weekend, play the value, and let’s watch your FastMoto squad rip it in the Mile High.
Stay pinned, — Ron 🤙